Former England captain Michael Vaughan has picked Australia to win the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 3-1 but with a rider. Vaughan believes the battle between the two No 4s – Virat Kohli and Steve Smith – could eventually determine the outcome of the series in which Australia start as firm favourites.

“Steve Smith back at number four, those two innings that we saw in the one-day series, he seemed to have had that flow (back). We’ve seen Steve’s eyes when he’s playing well, he just looks completely composed, calm out in the middle. He (has) found that,” he said at a promotional event on Tuesday.

“I think Virat Kohli, when he comes here, when he lands in Australia, he lands and knows that this is a place that he’s had a huge amount of success. You could argue which of the number fours has the biggest series could be the deciding factor of the whole series,” Vaughan who captained England in one of the most iconic Ashes triumphs in 2005 said.

With both teams having a strong bowling unit, Vaughan said totals in excess of 500 may not be a regular theme through the series. “I think 15 to 20 years ago, I think you had to arrive in Australia and think about getting 500 in the first thing. I think if you get 350 … you’re going to be very, very competitive. But it’s how you get to 350 against the likes of Jasprit (Bumrah), Pat Cummins, (Mitchell) Starc, Josh Hazlewood, Nathan Lyon. The team that can find a way to get the 350 to 400 on a regular basis is going to win the series,” he added.

Although India have won their last two Test series in Australia, Vaughan said replicating the success this time won’t be easy. “The last two times they’ve come here, they’ve won, and they’ve had a charismatic coach (in Ravi). They’ve had a captain in Virat Kohli. I’m a big believer (that) when you play Australia, there’s only one way to play them (and) that’s being on the front foot, being aggressive and trying to ruffle a few feathers. Ravi could do it. Virat could do it. I want to know in this Indian camp, who’s the Ravi Shastri? I don’t think there can be another one, but who’s going to be the Virat Kohli?

“Can Rohit arrive and kind of captain in a similar sense? I think that’s going to be the big challenge for India over the course of the next few weeks,” Vaughan said.