The BJP’s sweep in Maharashtra coupled with its good performance in the Assembly bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Bihar come close on the heels of the party retaining Haryana and has a symbolic impact much larger than just the numbers.

Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan were instrumental in bringing down the BJP’s Lok Sabha tally of 303 in 2019 to 240, thus taking the party below the majority mark and making it reliant on its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) allies Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Janata Dal (United). In the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP lost 63 seats, with 58 coming from these states. While in Uttar Pradesh, the BJP saw its Lok Sabha tally dip from 62 to 33, in Maharashtra and Rajasthan the party saw its tally fall from 23 to 9 and 24 to 14, respectively, and in Bihar, the BJP’s tally fell from 17 to 12. The BJP dropped the rest of its five Lok Sabha seats in Haryana, where it returned to power in October.

The four states have also been the core of the BJP’s tally in the northern, western and eastern parts of the country since the rise of Narendra Modi in national politics and powered the BJP to majorities at the Centre for the past decade. Apart from the falling numbers, the electoral dents that the party received in these states in the Lok Sabha elections were fueling a perception that the BJP was past its peak and was on the decline, thus making way for the Congress to expand and have a more realistic shot at power in alliance with other like-minded or anti-BJP parties.

The Maharashtra and bypoll victories have shown that the core has stood by the BJP, which despite its reduced Lok Sabha tally can draw confidence vis-a-vis the Opposition and its allies. That delimitation is a possibility in the near future and all four states are likely to see their share of seats rising is also a reason to cheer for the BJP.

In Maharashtra, the BJP had an almost 90% strike rate, winning 132 of the 149 seats it contested. Powered by the Shiv Sena and NCP tallies of 57 and 41, the Mahayuti won 232 of the state’s 288 seats.

In the country’s most populous state UP, which sends the maximum number of MPs to the Lok Sabha (80), the NDA triumphed in seven of the nine Assembly bypolls, reducing the Samajwadi Party (SP) to two. What is a matter of concern for the SP, which registered its best-ever showing in the Lok Sabha elections with 37 seats and was ahead of the BJP, is that the bypoll result seems to have turned the perception advantage in favour of the BJP three years ahead of the Assembly polls.

The BJP won Katehari, Kundarki, Ghaziabad, Majhawan, Khair and Phulpur, while ally RLD won Meerapur, even as the SP emerged victorious in just Karhal and Sisamau in the bypolls that were meant to suggest which way the wind was blowing after the jolt that the BJP received in the Lok Sabha polls.

The victory in Kundarki of Moradabad district in western UP was a feather in the cap for the BJP, as the seat, an SP or BSP stronghold for decades, is believed to have about 60% Muslims. The party retook Katehari for the first time since 1991.

In Rajasthan, the party won five of the seven Assembly seats that went to bypolls, while the Congress and its former ally Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) won one each. The Congress’s sole victory was in Dausa, where its victory margin was just 2,300 votes.

In Bihar, the NDA swept all four seats that went to polls, with the BJP bagging Tarari and Ramgarh and its allies Hindustani Awam Morch (Secular) and Janata Dal (United) winning the RJD bastions of Imamganj and Belaganj, respectively. With just about a year to go for the Assembly polls in Bihar, the losses in its bastions are being seen as a dampener for RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav.