The Karhal Assembly bypoll in Uttar Pradesh is getting tense, with the seat witnessing a battle between the Yadav family and calculations down to sub-castes.

The seat was vacated by Samajwadi Party Chief Akhilesh Yadav when he went on to contest Kannauj Lok Sabha constituency earlier this year. His nephew Tej Pratap Yadav, a former MP from Mainpuri, has been fielded from the Karhal this time. The Assembly seat will vote on November 20.

To counter Tej Pratap, the BJP has fielded Anujesh Yadav who is the son-in-law of Mulayam Singh Yadav’s younger brother Abhay Ram Yadav. Anujesh had earlier contested the Giror Assembly seat, also in Mainpuri district, in 2007 but lost.

In Karhal, Yadavs number about 1.25 lakh — making them the most populous community. While Tej Pratap belongs to the Kameriya sub-caste or gotra, Anujesh is from the Ghosi group. And with battle expected to be down to the wire, these sub-caste calculations could end up being the determining factor. The Ghosi are close to 65% of the Yadav population in the seat, while Kameriyas are about 35%.

The SP won the seat all but once over the last two decades and expected the bypoll to be an easy task, but Anujesh’s entry has complicated the situation.

Pulling out all the stops, the Yadav clan has been campaigning aggressively in the seat. Current Mainpuri MP Dimple Yadav, who is Akhilesh’s wife, and his uncle Shivpal Singh Yadav have practically been camping in Karhal to retain their family stronghold.

The BJP has also left no stone unturned, with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and other Union Ministers campaigning for Anujesh.

While the SP campaign accuses the BJP of “creating a divide within families”, the BJP has been primarily reaching out to the Ghosi Yadavs and telling them that they are being “dominated” by the more numerically strong Kamariya Yadavs.

Anujesh has also been speaking of developmental projects in the area, saying his pitch was for “party” and “ideology” and not “pariwar (family)”.

To add to the SP’s trouble, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has fielded Avanish Shakya, a member from the Shakya community, the largest group in the seat after the Yadavs. The Shakya community had traditionally voted for the SP, but with the BSP’s nominee, their votes are likely to be split too.

SP leaders also admit the task at hand, saying the result might be “close”. But they add they will win the race.

“Karhal is a traditional SP seat and has never left its side in any adverse conditions. Many Yadav candidates have thrown their hat in the ring from the seat in the past. But they could not distract the voters. We are reaching out to people from house to house. We are confident that the public will see this and that we will win the seat with a large margin,” said Alok Shakya, the SP’s Mainpuri president.

Karhal has mostly seen a contest between the SP and the BJP, with the former winning the seat all but once in its electoral history.

In 2002, Mulayam Singh Yadav’s rival Sobaran Singh Yadav contested from the seat and won it with a narrow margin of about 900 votes against Anil Kumar Yadav of the SP.