Will the BJP be able to snatch one more state from the Opposition or will it face a blow after running a polarising campaign built around the rhetoric of alleged illegal immigration? These will be among the things to watch out for on Saturday as the results of the Jharkhand Assembly elections are declared on Saturday.

Since coming in as the BJP’s election co-in-charge, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has single-handedly built a narrative in the state of alleged Bangladeshi infiltration in the tribal-dominated Santhal Pargana region, which is spread across six districts and has seven Assembly seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs).

The BJP has alleged that the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led government has engaged in appeasement politics aimed at the Muslim community while tribal communities, particularly women, have suffered with “Bangladeshi infiltrators” allegedly marrying tribal women, buying land and usurping jobs meant for locals. Moreover, a core part of the BJP’s message was its claim that infiltration poses a “threat” to Jharkhand’s identity and demographics.

The incumbent government countered this narrative by laying the blame on the Centre and the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), which it holds responsible for protecting the border regions and preventing infiltration, if at all. The JMM-led alliance has also seized on an MHA affidavit on infiltration, claiming it contradicts the BJP’s allegations and the government’s affidavits showing no infiltration in Santhal Pargana.

The results will reflect where and among whom the narratives — on either side — resonated. Wins for the BJP in Santhal Pargana, particularly its tribal seats, will point to not only the successful percolation of this narrative but also possibly the consolidation of Hindu and non-tribal votes in its favour.

The BJP designed the polarising rhetoric, in part, to break the INDIA bloc’s hold on the Adivasi seats, Jharkhand has a sizable tribal population that will play a crucial role in determining who emerges on top, particularly in the 28 tribal-reserved seats that account for a third of the total Assembly constituencies. At 26% of the state population, as per the 2011 Census, tribals number at least a lakh in 21 of the state’s 24 districts.

In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP lost ground in the tribal constituencies, posing a big hurdle to surmount in the Assembly elections. While the INDIA bloc parties won all five of the state’s ST-reserved Lok Sabha seats this year, in the 2019 Assembly polls, they won all but two ST-reserved Assembly seats, dealing the BJP a massive blow.

Ahead of the Assembly polls, the BJP focused on building a rapport with the community, from commemorating tribal icons to launching schemes targeting the community. Last year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched the Rs 24,000 crore Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs) Development Mission in Jharkhand on November 15, tribal icon Birsa Munda’s birth anniversary now marked as Janjatiya Gaurav Diwas or tribal pride day.

Another narrative that likely damaged the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls and could play a role in the Assembly elections is the arrest of Hemant Soren, which allowed the JMM to play the sympathy card.

After CM Hemant Soren’s arrest this January on corruption charges, his wife Kalpana emerged as a key leader of the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM). A rising star in state politics, Kalpana has had a busy year, from leading the party’s Lok Sabha campaign to contesting her debut election in the Gandey Assembly bypoll. Her considerable presence in the JMM’s campaign appeared to have struck a chord with women, in particular, across castes and communities, but whether that translates into votes will be clear on Saturday.

A centrepiece of the JMM campaign was its “Maiya Samman Yojana”, of which Kalpana has been the face. In August, months ahead of the polls, the government launched the scheme to give women between 18 and 50 years old from underprivileged communities Rs 2,500 each month, along the lines of similar and successful schemes in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The scheme, combined with Kalpana’s growing stature and demand as a star campaigner, was expected to help the INDIA bloc even in seats where it is relatively weak.

The focus on women voters, numbering at 1.26 crore, was apparent in the BJP’s campaign too, with the promise of the “Gogo Didi Yojana” to give Rs 2,100 a month to eligible women.

This was a high-stakes election for Jharkhand’s most prominent politicians and political dynasties. On Saturday, several former CMs and ministers are set to find out the extent of their influence in the state. In the JMM, Hemant Soren (Barhait) and his wife Kalpana (Gandey) will be hoping to cement their political strangleholds, along with Hemant’s brother Basant.

In the BJP camp, there are four former CMs and their kin whose fate will be known on Saturday. They are Madhu Koda’s wife and former MP Geeta (Jaganathpur), Arjun Munda’s wife Meera (Potka), former CM and ex-JMM leader Champai Soren (Seraikella), his son Babulal (Ghatsila), and Odisha Governor Raghubar Das’s daughter-in-law Purnima Sahu (Jamshedpur East).

The kainchi, or scissors, is the election symbol of 29-year-old “Tiger” Jairam Mahato, founder and chief of Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), a newly formed outfit that is contesting 71 seats in its poll debut. Mahato, known as “Jharkhand ka ladka (Jharkhand’s own son)”, emerged on the state’s political scene earlier this year and has cut across divides based on his social media popularity.

Mahato, a rising Kudmi OBC leader whose community accounts for an estimate 15% of the state’s electorate, has the potential to play a significant role in the Koylanchal area, or Jharkhand’s coal belt comprising the Ramgarh, Dhanbad, Giridih, Bokaro, Hazaribagh districts. The JKLM’s 50-point poll manifesto focuses on problems of unorganised workers and distress migration.

Though the 2011 Socio Economic and Caste Census estimated that Kudmis make up just 8% of the state population, any consolidation of these votes will likely dent the BJP-led alliance which has traditionally received the community’s votes. However, given the number of seats the JLKM is contesting, it may end up damaging the JMM too.