At a park in Dhantoli, around 4 km from the RSS headquarters in Nagpur, Devendra Fadnavis’s name is on almost everyone’s lips. There is almost a universal agreement that the Maharashtra Deputy Chief Minister and the BJP’s most recognisable face in state politics will win his Nagpur South West seat for the fourth straight time, with almost everyone saying “Aayega toh Deva bhau hi (Brother Deva will end up winning)”. But there is also an acknowledgement that it won’t be a cakewalk for Fadnavis, who is up against Congress’s Prafulla Gudadhe, a former corporator.

“Even now this is one seat that remains the BJP’s best bet,” says 73-year-old Rahul Shukla, a local voter. “Fadnavis will make it in the end. But from what appears till now, it is veering towards a good fight. Highly qualified voters in his constituency will not compromise for anybody.”

Another local, autorickshaw driver Siddharth Motghare, praises Fadnavis but says his margin may take a hit. “In the slums, he has ensured basic amenities and housing. I am confident Fadnavis will get elected once again. But his margin will likely decrease,” he says.

Fadnavis, who is close to the RSS leadership, started his political career in the mid-1990s. In 1997, when he was just 27 years old, he became the youngest mayor of Nagpur. Two years later, he was elected to the Assembly from Nagpur West and retained the seat in 2004. When Nagpur South West was created after delimitation, Fadnavis shifted there and won in 2009 with a margin of 27, 775 votes. In 2014, his margin rose to 58,942 votes and in the last election, it reduced slightly to 49,344.

With the Congress adopting the strategy of mobilising Dalits, Muslims, and Kunbis, the BJP and RSS swayamsevaks did not leave anything to chance and went door to door in the constituency, holding “prabhat pheris (morning processions)” and public rallies for Fadnavis. There are almost 90,000 Dalits, 70,000 Brahmins, 72,000 Kunbis (a crucial Other Backward Class community), and 40,000 Telis (another OBC group). With Teli and Brahmin votes expected to remain intact for the party, Kunbis and Dalits are expected to play a big role.

On Sunday, looking to make a last-minute impact, the Congress’s senior leader Priyanka Gandhi Vadra held a roadshow in Nagpur, passing through Fadnavis’s constituency. The fight in Nagpur South West is one of the 36 direct contests between the BJP and the Congress in the larger Vidarbha region, the outcome of which may end up determining who comes up on top in the state. In total, the two parties are facing each other in 76 constituencies across the state.

This is not the first time Gudadhe is up against Fadnavis and the formidable BJP poll machinery. He lost to the Deputy CM in 2014 too but believes he has a better chance this time. “In 2014, the decision to field me came as a surprise. I was not prepared to take on the massive Modi wave that swept across Maharashtra and the country. What makes this election different is that we are better organised and a lot more efforts are going in to ensure we can outdo the BJP,” says the Congress candidate, adding, “The crucial issues of joblessness among the youth coupled with the communal campaign of the BJP and anti-incumbency are key issues that will work to our advantage.”

Gudadhe ensured that no one in the party made any personal attacks against Fadnavis and instructed his team to tap into any sign of voter discontent on the ground.

“My father is 98 years old. He was a founder member of the BJP. The way they (BJP) are doing politics has left us disillusioned. What sense is there to divide people on caste or religious lines, saying things like ‘batenge toh katenge (divided we fall)’?” says local resident Sudhakar Nagpure. Some voters in the area also complain about the politics of splitting parties. Fadnavis has taken credit for splitting both the Shiv Sena (in 2022) and the Nationalist Congress Party (in 2023).

While voting on caste lines is an intrinsic part of Indian politics, in the past Fadnavis has managed to foreground his image as a clean politician and efficient administrator and this time too his campaign team is focusing on his governance track record. “Devendra Fadnavis is a politician whose work speaks for itself. Even if the biggest leaders of Congress, NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) or Shiv Sena (UBT) were to contest from Nagpur South West, they would not have been able to defeat Fadnavis. The Congress’s tall claims about giving a tough fight to him is wishful thinking and not based on ground realities,” says state BJP spokesperson Chandan Goswami, who is based in Nagpur.

“Even when Fadnavis was the CM, and now as Deputy CM, he made it a point to regularly visit the constituency. Not once has he ignored his constituents. Moreover, Fadnavis has a strong system, with two officers on special duty deployed in Nagpur around the clock to address public grievances. He works tirelessly and people not only know this but acknowledge it,” adds Goswami.