As Jharkhand votes in the first phase of its Assembly elections on Wednesday, the Opposition BJP, hoping to win a majority, is banking on regional ally All-Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP). Behind its decision to give 10 seats to the AJSUP are the BJP’s internal reviews showing that the two parties’ combined votes from the 2019 polls put their alliance in the lead in these seats.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, when the BJP and AJSUP had contested separately, the BJP had won 25 seats and AJSUP two.

Of the 10 seats the AJSUP is contesting as part of its agreement with the BJP now, four are voting in the first phase – Ichagarh, Jugsalai, Lohardaga and Manoharpur. Its remaining six seats – Dumri, Silli, Ramgarh, Gomia, Mandu and Pakur – will vote in the second phase on November 20.

In the 2019 polls, the AJSUP had won Silli and Gomia, and the BJP had won Mandu. The JMM and Congress had won the remaining seven seats. In five of the AJSUP’s seats – Ichagarh, Jugsalai, Dumri, Lohardaga and Ramgarh – the party’s combined vote share with the BJP would have been enough to win in the 2019 elections.

As part of the party’s campaign message, AJSUP workers in the 10 constituencies are promising voters that if an NDA government is formed, party president Sudesh Mahto will become Deputy Chief Minister.

Mahto is contesting from Silli, a constituency in Ranchi district that borders West Bengal, of which he is the sitting four-time MLA. Here, the AJSUP is campaigning on Mahto’s “Silli model” of development. The party claims that Mahto, as an MLA and minister, has worked to improve education and training of the youth, run free bus services, provide free meals, and develop sports facilities.

But the local AJSUP unit is upset with ally BJP’s efforts in Silli. “The way AJSUP had worked in support of the BJP in past elections, the local BJP is not showing such cooperation to us. They are taking part in campaigning at some places but not with much zeal,” ssays Bharat Sev Sai, the AJSUP’s Silli president.

On Wednesday, the BJP’s Jharkhand in-charge and Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is set to address a rally in support of Mahto in Silli, which votes in the second phase on November 20.

The AJSUP president’s primary challenger is the ruling Jharkhand Mukti Morcha’s (JMM) Amit Mahto, a popular local leader known for being “down to earth” who belongs to the same OBC community as Sudesh. In 2014, Amit had defeated Sudesh in Silli but was expelled from the Assembly in March 2018 after he was convicted for “manhandling two government officers” and was sentenced to two years in prison. Though Amit’s wife Seema won the bypoll that year, she lost in the 2019 elections to Sudesh.

“Later he (Amit) got relief from the High Court, which reduced his sentence to one year. He also became eligible to contest elections,” said Rohit Mahto, the JMM spokesperson in Silli.

Voters in Silli, however, appear to be divided along community lines. While upper castes and OBCs are backing the BJP-AJSUP alliance, tribals are supporting the JMM. The majority of voters here are OBCs, followed by tribals, Dalits and upper castes.

Simonu Oraon, 77, a tribal and a resident of Jaruadih village in Silli, says he will vote for the JMM because of Shibu Soren, the party founder and CM Hemant Soren’s father. “I am not aware what schemes the Hemant Soren government runs for the poor. I survive on farming and this roadside shop under a bus stand shed. But I recognise Shibu as the tallest tribal leader in the state. Only the Soren family and his party leaders take care of tribals when they face any problem here. So I will vote for his candidate, who is an OBC,” Oraon said, noting that Hemant now bears a strong resemblance to his father Shibu after growing a beard.

In Ramdera village, Rasraj Mahto says he will vote for the AJSUP because of Mahto’s caste and his work in the education sector. “Education is a must for employment. Hemant Soren had promised five lakh jobs in his previous term but he did not work in that direction. If the BJP comes to power, Mahto may help educated youth in getting jobs,” said Rasraj, a graduate who is unemployed.

Among the other seats the AJSUP is contesting is the ST-reserved Manoharpur, where the BJP and AJSUP’s votes together would not have been enough to defeat the JMM in 2019. But adding the votes of the erstwhile Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which merged with the BJP in 2020, and current ally Janata Dal (United) would have seen the NDA outdo the JMM.

In Dumri, where the AJSUP and BJP’s combined votes would have only given the allies a narrow lead in the 2019 polls over the JMM, the AIMIM that got a considerable chunk of the votes last time is no longer a factor and its votes are likely to go to the JMM-Congress candidate.

In Pakur, where the Congress got 51.9% of the vote share in 2019, the BJP and AJSUP’s combined votes would not have been enough to win the seat.

While the AJSUP and BJP are both looking for an advantage out of the alliance, the regional party is fearing a loss of Muslim votes. “Muslims don’t like the BJP. And when BJP leaders are targeting them as infiltrators, they will not vote for the alliance. Still, the AJSUP will get some Muslim votes in Silli because of the personal connect of the party president,” an AJSUP leader said.

However, the AJSUP is expecting to lose out on the Muslim vote in Pakur, a seat where the community is sizeable and that is close to the Bangladesh border. In 2019, the Congress’s Alamgir Alam had won the seat against the AJSUP’s Aquil Akhtar.

This time, the AJSUP has fielded Azhar Islam in Pakur, while the Congress has fielded Nisat Alam, wife of Alamgir Alam, who is in judicial custody over a money laundering case. Aquil Akhtar, the AJSUP’s 2019 candidate, is now contesting on a Samajwadi Party ticket. “Aquil will make a dent in the Congress’s votes. That will help the AJSUP,” another AJSUP leader said.

“To prevent loss of minority votes, the AJSUP is maintaining a strategic distance from the BJP’s allegations of illegal infiltration. Our stand is clear that action should be taken if anything happens illegally,” a senior AJSUP leader added.