Amid the tumult in the INDIA bloc, with the JD(U) walking out in Bihar and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ruling out alliances in West Bengal and Punjab, respectively, the Samajwadi Party (SP) sprang a surprise when its chief Akhilesh Yadav apparently unilaterally announced Saturday that the party would give the Congress 11 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh.

Sources in the Congress said the party was still hoping for 15-16 seats.

Meanwhile, the SP has also stitched a deal with its ally and another INDIA partner, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), giving it 7 Lok Sabha seats in its stronghold of western UP.

The INDIA bloc’s seat-sharing negotiations for UP have so far been difficult, made tougher by the fact that the three between them won just a handful of seats due to the BJP’s dominant performance both in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2019, when the SP had an alliance with the BSP and RLD, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party had won 5 seats, the Congress just 1 (Rae Bareli, with even Rahul Gandhi losing from Amethi), and the RLD none. In 2014, the Congress, in alliance with the RLD, had won just 2 seats and the RLD did not win any. The SP had won 5 seats then.

This time, among the seats the SP has ceded to the Congress are its bastions of Amethi and Rae Bareli. Reports suggest the other seats the Congress may contest include Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddh Nagar, Bareilly, Jhansi, Kanpur, Varanasi and Sultanpur.

The SP has reportedly demanded, in turn, one seat in Madhya Pradesh as part of INDIA – either Khajuraho or Tikamgarh, both seats the BJP had won comfortably in 2019 and 2014, with the Congress finishing a distant second and the SP third or fourth.

The nine of the 11 seats the SP has reportedly offered to the Congress were also won by the BJP in 2019, with the Congress coming second in only 3 (including Amethi) and third in 6. In fact, it was the SP that had finished as the runner-up in 4 of these seats and the BSP in 2 seats.

In 2014, of the 9 seats the SP reportedly wants to leave for Congress, Rahul and Sonia had won Amethi and Rae Bareli, respectively, but the BJP had won the rest.

The 2009 polls were far better for the INDIA parties – the Congress had won 21 seats and the SP 23. But the political landscape in UP has changed considerably since then.

At the first seat-sharing meeting between the Congress and SP held earlier this month, the parties had agreed that the performance in the 2022 Assembly elections would form the basis of the seat-sharing formula for the upcoming Lok Sabha polls.

If one goes by that, the BJP was the clear winner, with 255 of the 403 seats and 41.3% of the vote share. With its NDA allies, it won a total 273 seats and 43.3% of the vote share. The SP was the second largest party with 111 seats and 32.1% of the vote share, with its ally RLD winning 9 seats from 2.85% of the vote. The Congress, which contested 399 seats, won just 2 and 2.3% of the vote.

If the 2022 Assembly polls were extrapolated in terms of the 80 Lok Sabha seats, each of which comprises five to six Assembly segments, the INDIA allies came out ahead of the NDA in only 23 seats, of which the SP had the lead in 20 on its own strength. The Congress’s votes made a difference in only 3 seats.

In fact, the party got more than a lakh votes in just 4 parliamentary constituencies and more than 50,000 votes in just 10 seats.

Going by the 2022 polls, in the 9 known seats of the 11 being offered by the SP to the Congress, the BJP was the leading party in all but one seat – Rae Bareli. In 8 of these seats, the SP was the runner-up. The Congress’s best showing was in Amethi, Rae Bareli and Kanpur, though it still trailed the BJP and SP in terms of votes. In the other seats, the Congress secured fewer votes than even the BSP.

The INDIA bloc’s combined vote share was higher than the NDA’s in just 2 of these seats.

Going by these numbers, the SP can claim the lion’s share of the Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming polls.

The 2022 Assembly polls also showed that the Congress stands to gain immensely if the SP’s vote transfers to it in many of the seats. The converse, however, won’t be true, given the low number of votes the Congress won in 2022.

There is, of course, the BSP factor – the party has refused to join the INDIA bloc and is likely to go it alone. Though the BSP’s influence has shrunk considerably in recent years, it still wins a considerable chunk of votes in the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. It won 19.4% and 19.8% of the vote share in the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections, respectively. In the 2022 Assembly polls, its vote share fell to 13% from 22.4% in 2017 and 25.9% in 2012.

Though the BSP remains unlikely to join the INDIA bloc, as an exercise, if its votes were added to the INDIA bloc’s tallies in the 2022 Assembly polls, it could make a big difference in challenging the NDA. Combining the votes of the BSP with the SP, the Congress and RLD, the grouping outperforms the NDA in 53 seats, assuming the votes transfer across parties. The BSP on its own though is not the biggest party in terms of votes in any seat.

However, what will weigh on INDIA’s mind – and the Congress has been trying its best to get the BSP to its side – is that in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP had won 10 seats outperforming both the SP and Congress.