Asaduddin Owaisi’s party, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) is contesting only 16 seats in the November 20 Assembly polls in Maharashtra – the state where the party is considered to have one of the strongest bases outside Telangana. This is almost one-third of the number of seats (44) that it contested in Maharashtra in the 2019 polls, and even lesser than its 2014 figure of 22 in the state.

With its declining fortunes in the recent past, AIMIM sources said, the party has decided to focus on “winnability” than expansion of base in a sprawling state like Maharashtra.

In the multi-player Maharashtra elections marked with shifting loyalties in the existing coalitions, the AIMIM hopes it can become a “kingmaker” by getting even five to seven seats.

“We had received 230 applications for contests from ticket aspirants, but we decided that instead of big numbers we must focus on important seats which we can win. We are very sure that the seats we have selected are going to give us positive results,” said Imtiaz Jaleel, the AIMIM’s Maharashtra unit president and former Aurangabad MP, while speaking to The Indian Express.

Jaleel is banking on the fluid nature of the Maharashtra polls where some new political alignments are to be tested at the hustings, the Maratha quota agitation would have an impact, and “confusion” prevails over the ideological affiliation of some of the leading contenders.

“This is a complex election. There are too many players. There is no certainty that the two main alliances (the ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition MVA) will survive post elections. It is likely no one will get a clear majority. In such a situation, any party that has five-seven MLAs will become kingmaker,” Jaleel claimed.

The AIMIM has fielded four Dalit candidates from as many SC-reserved seats with the hope to consolidate the Muslim-Dalit votes in its favour. Its campaign is raising issues like mob lynching, minority persecution and hijab, which concern a significant section of the Muslim community.

“If you look at the 2019 Lok Sabha results, I got a lot of Dalit votes and won (the Aurangabad seat). That time we were in alliance with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). Unfortunately, that alliance couldn’t be stitched together this time, but we have the support of the (Dalit) community. Dalit masses are facing a crisis of leadership. They are looking at us since we are talking about saving the Constitution. The Maratha community is also looking at us because of the Manoj Jarange Patil’s agitation (for Maratha quota),” Jaleel said.

The four Dalit candidates fielded by the AIMIM are contesting from Miraj in Sangli, Murtijapur in Akola, Kurla in Mumbai and Nagpur South in Nagpur. The remaining candidates are Muslim faces contesting from Aurangabad East, Aurangabad Central, Bhiwandi West, Versova, Byculla, Mumbra, Mankhurd-Shivaji Nagar, Malegaon, Dhule, Solapur, Nanded South and Karanja. Jaleel himself will contest from the Aurangabad East constituency.

The Malegaon and Dhule seats are currently held by AIMIM. In the 2019 Assembly polls, the party stood second in Aurangabad Central, Aurangabad East, Byculla, and Solapur City Central.

AIMIM sources said contesting fewer seats would also help the party shed the “BJP’s B team” tag given by various INDIA alliance parties or the MVA in Maharashtra context, given that both the INDIA bloc and the AIMIM aim to consolidate similar vote banks in various states.

“In Maharashtra, if we had to cut into MVA votes, we would have been contesting 230 seats. We have never been in that game. The Congress accuses us of it because it does not want Muslim leadership to rise on its own. We are a serious player in Maharashtra,” an AIMIM leader said.

The Owaisi-led party was earlier trying to forge an alliance with the MVA, with Jaleel claiming to have sent a proposal to the Congress and the NCP (Sharad Pawar) in this regard, but it did not work out. The Congress claimed that it had not got any such proposal.

The AIMIM’s bid to scale down its electoral push in the state also comes at a time when it has been on a downslide. Jaleel lost the Aurangabad seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls to the Shiv Sena candidate. In the 2019 Assembly polls, though the party picked two seats, it lost Byculla and Aurangabad Central, which it had won in the 2014 polls.

However, while the AIMIM has won only a few seats since its foray into Maharashtra in 2014, its presence has dented the prospects of the Congress and the Sharad Pawar NCP in several others. In 2019, for instance, while the AIMIM won only Malegaon Central and Dhule City, it is believed to have cut into the Congress-NCP’s votes in 12 seats.