After being reduced to single digits in the Lok Sabha elections just five months back, the BJP-led Mahayuti staged a resounding comeback winning 231 of the total 288 seats in the Assembly polls in Maharashtra, the state with the highest GDP in the country.

Coming as it does on the back of a surprise win in Haryana in October, it was the scale of BJP’s victory that surprised many even within the alliance. Bagging 133 seats of the total 148 it contested, the victory enveloped the entire state, from Vidarbha to Konkan and Marathwada, and overcame multiple challenges — from farmer distress and anger over Maratha reservation to rising prices and unemployment.

With a strike rate of almost 90 per cent, the BJP is just 12 seats away from crossing the majority mark on its own, and many within the party and even amongst its allies — Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) and NCP (Ajit Pawar) — now feel the Chief Minister’s post may go to the BJP. But BJP leadership has not taken a final call; sources in the party said welfare measures of the Shinde-led government has generated considerable goodwill for the Mahayuti, and this cannot be ignored.

As counting progressed during the day, the Mahayuti which had taken an early lead in the tally consolidated its gains. It turned the tables in the two regions that presented the biggest challenge to a favourable outcome: Vidarbha, where it won 47 of the 62 seats, and Marathwada, where it won 40 of the 46 Assembly seats.

BJP’s vote share was only marginally higher at 26.56 per cent in this Assembly elections compared with 26.18 per cent during the Lok Sabha polls. For the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, it was marginally lower at 12.44 per cent compared with 12.95 per cent in the Lok Sabha.

Ajit Pawar’s NCP, which fared the worst among the six parties in the Lok Sabha polls, clawed back with a vote share of 9.24 per cent compared with 3.6 per cent during the Lok Sabha polls. In the Assembly elections, the party won 41 of the 59 seats it contested, and dealt a big blow to Sharad Pawar’s NCP, against which it was pitted one-on-one in 41 seats.

The vote share of Congress, which had won 13 Parliamentary seats in Maharashtra this June, declined by almost 5 percentage points to 12.05 per cent now from 16.9 per cent during Lok Sabha polls. The party lost in 62 of the 76 seats where it was in a straight contest with the BJP.

The vote share of Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena dipped to 10.19 per cent from 12.95 per cent. The party lost 38 of the 50 seats where it was in a direct fight with the Shinde Sena. Sharad Pawar’s NCP saw its vote share go up marginally to 11.25 per cent from 10.27 per cent during the Lok Sabha polls, but it lost 29 of the 36 seats where it was pitted against Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

A combination of factors aided the Mahayuti’s victory, key being the grassroots campaigning of the 30-35 organisations under the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh umbrella, the effective implementation of the Ladki Bahin Yojana, and the Prime Minister’s ek hain toh safe hain campaign.

A sharp rise in voter turnout is another factor that favoured the Mahayuti. Election Commission data showed a sharp 6 percentage point jump in women voter turnout. In fact, this spike contributed to the overall voter turnout increase of 4.7 percentage points in the state. The data reveals that of the 122 seats where the voter turnout was 5 percentage points higher, Mahayuti managed to trump the Maha Vikas Aghadi in as many as 108 seats.

In fact, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde thanked women and farmers specifically for reposing faith in his government. “The beloved sisters and farmers have rewarded our work. I had said earlier in the Assembly that we will come to power again with the work we have done for the people and that our beloved sisters and farmers have given us their blessings in the polls,” he said.

The role of smaller parties and independents cannot be underscored in this election. While MNS vote share jumped to 2 per cent from zero in the Lok Sabha (when it did not contest), the vote share of others rose from 11.25 five months back to 13.88 per cent. A key part of Mahayuti strategy was to chip away into the vote share of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi.

Fadnavis said the results showed peoples’ trust in the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. During the campaign, he had often talked up Muslim vote consolidation and the notion of “vote jihad”. As the alliance comfortably crossed the majority mark, he attributed the victory to Modi’s ek hain toh safe hain call.

The election outcome suggests the party significantly benefited in constituencies with a substantial Muslim population. In 38 seats where Muslims make up more than 20 per cent of the electorate, the BJP made notable strides, winning 14 seats, up from 11 in 2019. The Congress, in particular, has faced heavy losses in these constituencies, winning only five seats, down from 11 in 2019.

Terming it an unprecedented victory, NCP’s Ajit Pawar thanked the voters and said responsibility of the ruling alliance has only increased.

Uddhav Thackeray, whose Sena fared poorly along with its allies, accepted the mandate. “This is an unexpected and unimaginable result, but I have accepted it as there is no choice. I do not think that Maharashtra would do this to me. I am wondering what this government has done for such a wave… The BJP’s former president had said there should be no opposition parties in the country, Some are saying this is a victory of EVMs,” he said.