After the Dalit vote in Maharashtra drifted away from the Mahayuti in the Lok Sabha polls, owing to the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) campaign on “threats to the Constitution and reservation”, the state’s ruling alliance has clawed back in the Assembly elections the seats where the Scheduled Castes (SC) play a key role.

The Mahayuti’s landslide victory included wins in 20 of the state’s 29 SC-reserved seats, as well as 59 of the 67 general seats where SCs account for at least 15% of the population. Across the state, Dalits make up about 12% of the population, as per the 2011 Census.

The BJP led the alliance with wins in 10 SC-reserved Assembly seats, followed by the Ajit Pawar-led NCP in five, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena in four, and one going to a minor ally. But it was a poor showing on the MVA front – the Congress won four SC seats, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena (UBT) won three, and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) won two – winning a total nine such seats.

In the 67 general seats that have at least a 15% proportion of SC population, the BJP alone won 42 seats, with the NCP winning eight and the Shiv Sena six, besides three others won by minor allies. The MVA won just eight of these seats – three by the Congress, two each by the Sena (UBT) and NCP (SP), and one by the Peasants and Workers Party.

Not only did the Mahayuti dominate in these Assembly seats, it was also able to mount a significant comeback from its performance in this year’s Lok Sabha polls, which saw the MVA win all five of the state’s SC-reserved parliamentary constituencies. At the Assembly segment-level too, the MVA had a considerable lead with wins in 18 segments reserved for SCs; the Mahayuti had managed wins in 10 SC segments, with an Independent winning one.

In the Lok Sabha polls, across the 67 general seats where at least 15% of the population is SC, the MVA led with wins in 37 segments compared to the Mahayuti’s tally of 26, with the four remaining seats split evenly between the AIMIM and Independents. These Assembly polls saw an MVA collapse in these seats, with the Mahayuti more than doubling its tally to 59.

Vote share data also reflect the Mahayuti’s dominance in these seats – it secured 49.48% of the total votes in SC-reserved seats, and 48.14% in general seats where SC account for at least 15% of the population. The corresponding figures for the MVA are 39.43% and 48.14%, respectively.

In SC-reserved seats, the Mahayuti’s average winning margin was more than twice what the MVA could manage, at almost 33,820 votes against 16,660. There was a similar split in the general seats where SCs account for at least 15% of the population – an average margin of 33,810 votes for the Mahayuti compared to 14,290 for the MVA.

While the Opposition’s Lok Sabha campaign built around protecting the Constitution and reservation failed to find resonance in the Assembly elections, the Mahayuti and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s pitch to Dalit, tribal and OBC communities to consolidate behind it, with the “Ek hain to safe hain (Together, we are safe)” slogan, appears to have worked on the ground.