THE UNREST among the OBCs following a Maharashtra government draft notification allowing the issue of Kunbi certificates to the blood relatives of Maratha members who already have the certificate does not auger well for the ruling BJP ahead of the crucial 2024 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

OBC leaders and organisations have threatened state-wide rallies against the proposal, fearing it would cut into their quota pie. Cabinet minister and NCP (Ajit Pawar) faction leader Chhagan Bhujbal has announced the first such meeting of OBCs at Ahmednagar on February 3 under the banner of the Samata Parishad Bhujbal, declaring that he was not concerned about retaining his post. “We will ensure OBC reservation remains intact at any cost.”

OBC Jan Manch president Prakash Shendge calls the draft notification a “betrayal”, opening the doors for Marathas to avail the OBC quota using Kunbi certificates.

At 52% of the population, OBCs are a decisive force in Maharashtra. Comprising 250-plus groups and sub-groups, they have a presence across 355 talukas covering 36 districts, with not a single one of the state’s 40,000-plus villages not having some numbers.

The Marathas, in contrast, are 33% of the state population, but the single largest group in the state, and socially and politically the most dominant.

Since the late 1980s, led by right-wing ideologue Vasantrao Bhagwat, the BJP has assiduously nurtured an OBC support base, to expand beyond its image of being a Brahmin-Baniya party. Bhagwat’s efforts ensured that backward communities such as the Malis, Dhangars and Vanjaris – popularly grouped under the acronym ‘Madhav’ – emerged as the mainstay of the BJP.

In contrast, the Marathas are seen as traditionally supporters of the Congress, and later its offshoot NCP, plus the Shiv Sena.

While the Maharashtra government, headed by Maratha leader Eknath Shinde and including another Maratha as Deputy CM (Ajit Pawar), apart from Devendra Fadnavis, has tried to assuage the OBCs calling their apprehensions about dilution of their quota as misplaced, they have had little success so far.

Fadnavis, a Brahmin leader, also reiterated Monday that the government was committed to safeguarding the OBC quota, with “Kunbi certificates to be issued only to eligible candidates after thorough scrutiny”.

But the BJP’s fear additionally is that the gains of the Maratha quota move will accrue to Shinde as CM, consolidating his base, while the OBC anger will boomerang on the BJP.

A senior BJP OBC leader from North Maharashtra admitted the party was worried about the optics. “Marathas are a dominant community. When they get Kunbi certificates, they will automatically avail the OBC quota… While those in the know argue that the number of individuals getting new Kunbi certificates as per the notification will be small, the question is how will we counter OBC opposition, ” the leader said.

Treading with caution, the Shinde Sena-BJP-Ajit Pawar NCP government has told its members not to speak out of turn, given the risk of aggravating an already delicate situation. And yet Union minister Narayan Rane, himself a Maratha, has gone public against the draft notification. “Extending OBC rights to Marathas, rather than separate reservation, was not a good decision. It will further divide the society and generate unrest,” he said.

Rane believes the backwards within the Maratha community should get separate reservation in government jobs and education, and fears a dilution of the Maratha identity if it accepts Kunbi certificates for OBC status.

In 2013-14, as Cabinet minister in the Prithviraj Chavan-led Congress-NCP coalition government, Rane had steered a committee that recommended a separate 16% quota for Marathas. However, it was challenged in courts.

The Maratha issue has hit the BJP at a time when the party was hoping to steady its ship in Maharashtra on the strength of the Ram Temple consecration boost.– against the challenge posed by the Uddhav Sena-Sharad Pawar NCP-Congress alliance, that is so far holding strong.

Trying to find the middle ground, the BJP let Shinde solely take the limelight for warding off the immediate challenge posed by Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange Patil’s planned Mumbai protest. However, the BJP knows that it needs to do more to assuage the OBCs.

Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi president Prakash Ambedkar, who has carved out a Dalit-OBC vote base for himself and has so far kept his options open between the NDA and Maha Vikas Aghadi, underlines the BJP’s dilemma.

“CM Eknath Shinde has become the tallest Maratha leader of Maharashtra. He has surpassed Sharad Pawar, Ashok Chavan et al. So, the Maratha vote bank will go to the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction),” Ambedkar predicts.