Before the Lok Sabha polls, the CPI(M) had called the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) a “secular” party and said it was open to an alliance with it. Couple of months down the line, in the final lap of the Palakkad Assembly bypoll campaign, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan said the IUML’s state president, Sadiq Ali Shihab Thangal, was an “activist of the Jamaat-e-Islami”.

What explains the comment? Shifted realities on the ground that left the CPI(M) routed in the Lok Sabha polls with just a single seat, and the tight battle playing out in the Palakkad Assembly bypoll that votes on November 20.

First, what did Vijayan say?

On November 8, while campaigning for Left Democratic Front (LDF) candidate Sathyan Mokeri ahead of the Wayanad Lok Sabha bypoll, Vijayan said Congress candidate Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was contesting with “the support of the Jamaat-e-Islami”. The organisation, Vijayan said, was not in “favour of a democratic system”.

Saying the Jamaat stood for an “Islamic regime”, Vijayan said “the extremist section” was “trying to gain influence in the Indian Union Muslim League”. The IUML is a part of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala and a constituent of the INDIA bloc at the national level.

Then on Sunday, while campaigning for the LDF-backed Independent candidate P Sarin in Palakkad, Vijayan linked IUML state president Sadiq Ali Thangal for the first time with the Jamaat, saying he is behaving like “a follower of the Jamaat-e-Islami”. “His predecessors (from the Thangal family) were all well-respected,” the CM said, going on to refer to how the IUML stood by the Congress government in Kerala after the Babri Masjid was demolished.

The Malappuram-based Panakkad Thangal family has considerable influence on Muslims in Kerala. Apart from being at the helm of the IUML, the family is also associated with Samastha, an influential Muslim scholars’ body. When the Babri Masjid was demolished in 1992, the IUML was led by Panakkad Syed Muhammedali Shihab Thangal, the eldest brother of Sadiq Ali. Thangal senior had then appealed to the community: “Not a single stone should fall on a Hindu house. Muslims should stand guard for Hindu temples, if required.”

What was the CPI(M)’s strategy during the Lok Sabha polls?

Before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) had aggressively reached out to the state’s Muslims and the IUML. In 2023, CPI(M) state secretary M V Govindan said the IUML was “a party which sees things from a secular perspective”. Other CPI(M) state leaders said that the doors of the LDF were open to the IUML for a potential alliance.

The CPI(M)’s main plank in the Lok Sabha polls was, in fact, opposition to the Modi government’s Citizenship (Amendment) Act, which had come under criticism by Muslim groups across the country. This was seen as a strategy by the party to attract the Muslim vote that has traditionally been with the UDF in Kerala towards it.

However, the CPI(M)’s game plan failed miserably, with the CPI(M) winning only one out of 20 seats — explaining, it seems, the course correction.

What has been the change in the CPI(M) since the Lok Sabha elections?

Having taken an aggressive stand on the Sabarimala issue that alienated many Hindus, now the CPI(M) appears to be trying woo them back by taking on a strident anti-IUML stand. Hindus in Kerala have been apprehensive over reports of growing Islamist extremism, which is what the CPI(M) appears to be betting on.

In its review of the party performance in the Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) claimed that the Social Democratic Party of India, the political wing of the banned Popular Front of India, and the Jamaat worked in tandem with the Congress and the IUML to ensure the UDF’s victory. Since then, CPI(M) has been constantly targeting the IUML.

How does the Palakkad bypoll fit into this?

The LDF has been struggling in the Palakkad Assembly seat, where the BJP has made inroads and was a runner-up in the 2016 and 2021 elections. An estimated 74% of Palakkad’s voters are Hindu, followed by 22% Muslim voters and 3% Christian votes. The CPI(M) is counting on getting some of the Hindu vote away from the BJP to win the bypoll.

The run-up to the bypoll has been marked by several twists and turns, with popular youth BJP leader G Sandeep Varier joining the Congress, and the Congress itself losing its Kerala youth secretary and head of its state digital media cell P Sarin, who is now contesting as an Independent with the backing of the Left. The Palakkad bypoll was necessitated after the incumbent MLA, Shafi Parambil of the Congress, got elected to the Vadakara constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

What has been the Jamaat-e-Islami’s space in Kerala politics?

Ironically, the Kerala unit of the Jamaat-e-Islami has in the past openly expressed support for the LDF in Kerala. After the Jamaat floated its political wing, the Welfare Party of India, in 2011, the CPI(M) had ruled several local bodies in Kerala with the support of the party.

Besides this, the CPI(M) and Jamaat have also held joint protests against land acquisition for projects such as the GAIL pipeline during the time the Congress was in power.

However, in 2019, with the BJP’s influence growing in Kerala, the Jamaat changed its political line and declared that only the Congress could take on the Sangh Parivar.