In August 2022, when Nitish Kumar led the JD(U) out of the NDA for the second time, and joined hands with the RJD to form an alternative government, the BJP had termed it “good riddance”.

But privately, party leaders admitted that the exit of the JD(U) could hurt the BJP’s 2024 Lok Sabha calculations in the politically crucial and key Hindi heartland state of Bihar.

On Thursday, amid feverish talk of the Bihar Chief Minister opening channels with top BJP leaders, at least three state BJP leaders told The Indian Express that if the JD(U) returns to the NDA, it would not just be a morale booster for the BJP but also practically demolish the INDIA bloc at the national level.

A party leader said Nitish’s entry would be just the kind of push the BJP needs in Bihar, to turn the spring in its step after recent Assembly wins and the January 22 consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, into sure-shot victory.

Sources in the BJP also confirmed that talks between the two sides had been on for the last few days. “But the condition from the BJP state unit was that Nitish should not insist on continuing as CM. However, our top leadership is conscious of what it is doing,” a senior leader from the Bihar BJP said.

Another party leader from the state said that Nitish is in direct touch with the top leadership, and that the state unit does not have much of a say. “However, it is more or less clear that Nitish Kumar is keen on returning to the BJP and becoming a part of the NDA again.”

The leader pointed out that Nitish was cognisant of the fact that in 2019, an alliance with the BJP had helped the JD(U) win 16 of the 17 Lok Sabha seats it contested. “He knows that he can win more seats with the BJP, even if the JD(U) contests fewer constituencies, because he can avail the benefits of the current wave in favour of the BJP due to the Ram Temple in Ayodhya. Also, many senior leaders in his party are more partial towards the BJP than the Congress,” the leader said, also confirming that Nitish’s one demand was staying on as CM.

Other sources too said that the BJP had based its calculations entirely on the Lok Sabha elections. “Nitish Kumar and the JD(U) bring a 15% vote share… Even if the BJP again won 17 of the 17 it contested last time, the absence of the JD(U) votes could make things tougher,” a party leader said, adding: “But, above all, the BJP will gain by breaking the INDIA bloc into pieces.”

The leader added: “The BJP central leadership has always been conscious of what the JD(U) brings to the table. In the state where caste formulation is still a crucial factor in electoral politics, the relevance of Kumar and his JD(U) cannot be ignored.”

Incidentally, both the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) factions are already with the BJP. The BJP’s promotion of Chirag Paswan at the JD(U)’s expense was seen as one reason for Nitish switching sides in 2022.

While gains to the BJP are clear, Nitish’s exit would be a blow that the INDIA bloc may also find difficult to recover from, after the snubs from the Trinamool Congress’s Mamata Banerjee and Aam Aadmi Party’s Bhagwant Mann on Wednesday.

Top sources in the BJP predicted more such setbacks to the Opposition bloc in the run-up to the fast-approaching Lok Sabha elections, with the BJP doors open to individual leaders as well as smaller parties.

Recently, former senior Congress-turned-AAP leader Ashok Tanwar joined the BJP in Punjab, while on Thursday, former Karnataka CM Jagadish Shettar rejoined the BJP, months after having crossed over to the Congress.

“More Opposition leaders, including from the Congress, will be joining the BJP. What the BJP wants is the NDA getting close to 400 seats, if not the BJP,” a senior party leader said.