Reluctance to let go of her supremacy in West Bengal, reservations regarding the CPI(M) as an alliance partner, disillusionment with the Congress and, more importantly, concerns regarding its minority vote bank – all seem to have played a part in Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee hardening her stance on the INDIA alliance.

While the seat-sharing in Bengal was never expected to be easy, and there were voices from all sides needling the other, the Chief Minister suggested Wednesday that the doors to talks with the Congress were closed, and that the issue of national alliance would now be decided only after the elections.

The Congress adamance

Indicating the thinking within the TMC, a senior party leader and MP said that the party expected the BJP to get a massive boost from the grand show around the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, atop its recent Assembly wins in the Hindi heartland states.

“At this moment, there is need for a joint effort against the BJP, for which our party chief has been trying for months. But no one is listening to her… Her proposal of 2 seats to the Congress in Bengal was rejected. Her initial proposal that the Congress contest 300 seats and the regional parties field candidates in the rest also got no response. What is the point in being in such an alliance, where one party does not seem serious enough to take on the BJP?” the leader said, adding that the Congress should not forget that “Mamata Didi stopped the BJP in its tracks in the Assembly polls (2021)”.

The TMC leader also accused the Congress of showing highhandedness and “undermining an important leader like Mamata Banerjee”, claiming they had not called her for an INDIA meeting, nor invited or informed her about the Bengal leg of Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra. This has been denied by the Congress.

The TMC cites the Congress recent performance in Bengal to make its point. While Malda and Murshidabad, with a total 5 Lok Sabha seats, are considered Congress strongholds in the state, the party won only 2 of these in 2019. In the 2021 state polls, the party could not win a single seat in the entire state, including these strongholds. While the TMC won 8 of Malda’s 12 seats and the BJP 4, it took 21 of Murshidabad’s 22 Assembly segments and the BJP 1.

The BJP challenge

Mamata has much to lose if she cedes her “supremacy” in Bengal at a time when the BJP is snapping at her heels, and many of its leaders are facing serious corruption charges or cases.

With 42 Lok Sabha seats, Bengal is an important state and the TMC’s 23 currently make it the fourth largest party in the Lok Sabha. With the BJP right now at 17, giving the Congress more than 2 seats (which the Congress currently holds) is not palatable to the TMC.

“Firstly, the TMC is more likely to win against the BJP… Leaving seats to the Congress will only work in the BJP’s favour. Secondly, if the Congress fails nationally and the BJP wins the Lok Sabha polls, the Trinamool needs to have the numbers to be a strong Opposition, be a check against the Centre,” a TMC state leader said.

The minority vote

The minority vote that has been behind her for a while now is one of Mamata’s biggest strengths, also adding to her clout outside the state. The TMC has had several scares on that front, especially the emergence of the Indian Secular Front (ISF) led by influential cleric Naushad Siddiqui in Bengal. The Congress and CPI(M) had tied up with the Front in 2021, which won 1 Assembly seat. In the panchayat polls last year too, the ISF performed impressively.

What was another eyeopener for the TMC was its shock defeat in the bypolls to the minority-dominated Sagardighi seat in Murshidabad last year – though the Congress’s winning MLA later moved to the TMC.

After several changes in the party structure to reach out to the Muslims, the TMC chief has made strong statements against the BJP and its brand of politics lately, going much further than the Congress will dare venture.

On the day of the Ram Temple consecration ceremony, Mamata’s No. 2 Abhishek Banerjee said his religion could not accept a place of worship “built on hatred, violence and the dead bodies of innocents”. Mamata herself led an all-faith rally, visited different places of worship, and in the speech that followed said that “somebody goes to a temple and thinks that is sufficient” to fight against the BJP.

The Left as the enemy

The fourth factor for Mamata remains her long-standing animosity with the Left, having built her political career fighting almost singlehandedly against its dominance in the state. She has been known to be unhappy about the Congress leadership’s proximity with the CPI(M) – out of proportion to its electoral clout – and recently complained about the Left party “hijacking” INDIA meetings.

The Left too has been averse to any peace overtures towards its arch rival in Bengal, and has said as much.