As the BJP-led Union government prepares to complete the Census exercise by 2026, delimitation that is expected to be held soon afterwards is likely to emerge as a common political plank for the southern states, four of which are ruled by non-BJP parties. In two of the southern states, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, Assembly elections are scheduled to be held that year.

While delimitation based solely on population figures could bring down the number of Parliament seats in all the southern states, the Chief Ministers of the non-BJP-ruled states of Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and Telangana for now have united over what they refer to as the Centre’s “unfair taxation practices”.

Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin reiterated this month that his state had been getting the raw end of the taxation deal for the past many years. For every rupee the state pays the Centre as taxes, Tamil Nadu gets back just 29 paise, he said.

Stalin’s party DMK in September supported his Karnataka counterpart Siddaramaiah’s call to convene a conclave in Bengaluru on “unfair” taxation practices of the Centre. According to Siddaramaiah, southern states, including Karnataka, have been penalised for having a higher per capita Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP). Karnataka gets just 14 to 15 paise per every rupee it gives the Centre in taxes, the Congress leader pointed out.

On September 12, Kerala CM Pinarayi Vijayan held a meeting of finance ministers of non-BJP-ruled states to discuss “fair taxation practices” in the wake of consultations with the 16th Finance Commission headed by Dr Arvind Panagariya. In the 15th Finance Commission, the Centre paid just 35 paise per every rupee collected as taxes from the state, Kerala has maintained. In contrast, Uttar Pradesh gets Rs 1.6 back for every rupee it pays as taxes to the Centre, the southern states have argued.

Explaining what makes taxation a comfortable plank for these states, despite the complicated economics, a Congress leader in Karnataka said, “People, in general, might not understand the nitty-gritty of taxation. But it is easy for people to understand that the Centre has not been paying us (the southern states) because we perform economically better than states in the north.”

A DMK leader said, “If there is one common thread for all the states in the South to be angry with the Centre, it is taxation. We have been able to communicate in simple terms that Tamil Nadu has not benefitted from the successive Finance Commissions.”

Tamil Nadu’s Deputy CM Udhayanidhi Stalin started a campaign this March asking people to tag Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media stating he is “28 Paise PM”, a reference to the percentage of taxes the state receives per rupee from the Centre. “The campaign was a big success before the Lok Sabha elections,” said a DMK leader. In February, both the Karnataka and Kerala governments held protests in Delhi against the Centre’s “financial atrocities”.

The Congress, the DMK, and the Left that are in power in four of the states in the region think that the taxation plank is only the forerunner for the bigger issue of delimitation that they have to raise in the next couple of years. The issue has already seen Stalin and Naidu speak in a similar tone, with both speaking of the need to increase the family size in the south. The two maintained that a higher birth rate was required to reverse the ageing trend in the southern states.

This, however, does not indicate any real political consensus on the issue between Naidu and the others. In an interview to The Indian Express in October, the Andhra CM said he was not worried about the South’s representation in Parliament getting affected because of delimitation.

“I’m not worried. Southern states had the initial advantage due to economic reforms, and we’ve progressed. Now, North India is starting to benefit as well. Regarding political representation, I don’t think there will be significant changes. Historically, both Assembly and Parliament seats have been fixed in respect to the states. For example, Andhra Pradesh has 25 MPs, and I believe 25 MPs will be there, depending on population, seats will be divided. Same thing has to continue,” he said.

“We are studying the delimitation process and will come up with a viable solution for the south’s troubles in the near future,” said a TDP leader.