Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) chief Raj Thackeray expressed confidence earlier this week that a BJP-led government would retain power in Maharashtra in the Assembly elections on November 20. Thackeray’s comments were in sharp contrast to his anti-BJP stand in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, indicating a pragmatic shift in his political strategy. By openly aligning with the BJP, he aims to position himself as a key player in the state’s political landscape

The Assembly polls are particularly critical for Thackeray as he seeks not only to enhance his party’s relevance but also to facilitate his son Amit’s debut. This personal stake adds urgency to his political manoeuvres as the MNS prepares to contest 165 seats across the state.

Thackeray, once a populist firebrand advocating Marathi pride and regional identity, made his first significant mark in the state in the Assembly polls in 2009, when his then-nascent party secured 13 Assembly seats, challenging the established political parties.

Since then, his political journey has been marked by a series of strategic alliances and shifts that reflect the evolving dynamics of Maharashtra politics. However, these realignments, along with perceptions of his inconsistent positions, have contributed to a decline in the MNS’s electoral clout, with its vote share plummeting from 5.75% in 2009 to 2.25% in 2019, when only one candidate of the party was elected.

Thackeray has transitioned from being a staunch supporter of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to openly criticising him during rallies for the Congress-NCP alliance candidates in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Despite holding 10 rallies supporting the Congress-NCP, his efforts largely failed with the alliance losing nine of the 10 constituencies where he campaigned.

In August, Thackeray faced scrutiny from the Enforcement Directorate (ED) in a money laundering investigation linked to the state-run Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS). More recently, he has reoriented himself towards the BJP, campaigning for the party for the Assembly polls and sharing the stage with Modi.

Thackeray’s rapport with key BJP leaders indicates that their relationship is built on the party’s prior ties. “The only party, aside from the Shiv Sena, with which I had a relationship is the BJP. I often met with leaders like Pramod Mahajan and others from the Sangh. While I know leaders from other parties, I don’t share the same rapport with them,” Thackeray said in a recent interview to a Marathi news channel.

Maharashtra Assembly Election Schedule 2024

Thackeray’s political position is characterised by a blend of regional advocacy and a focus on his “connection” with voters.

He is also a central figure in one of Maharashtra’s most prominent political rivalries, the one with his cousin Uddhav Thackeray who leads the Shiv Sena (UBT). Their rivalry has often played out publicly, with both engaging in rhetoric aimed at undermining each other’s credibility. Raj has accused Uddhav of diluting the Shiv Sena’s original principles, while Uddhav has portrayed the MNS as a splinter group lacking a genuine political vision.

During elections, both parties vie for similar voter bases, especially among Marathi speakers, leading to confrontations and efforts to sway each other’s supporters.

With the Shiv Sena split and Eknath Shinde positioning himself as the true inheritor of Bal Thackeray’s legacy, there is a belief that collaboration with Raj could diminish Uddhav’s voter base, which may be crucial in the current tightly contested electoral landscape.

The Mumbai toll waiver that the Maharashtra government announced just before the elections has become a significant part of the electoral narrative. Raj Thackeray played a pivotal role in advocating for this toll waiver, leveraging his status as a regional leader to rally public support.

The state government’s decision has increased the MNS’s visibility as a party advocating for the common man. Thackeray’s stance has resonated with voters frustrated by toll fees.

Fielding his son from Mahim also represents a significant step in Thackeray’s efforts to establish a political legacy and ensure the continuity of the MNS. Amit will face sitting Shiv Sena MLA Sada Sarvankar and Shiv Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant. While the BJP has indicated its support for Amit, Sarvankar is resisting calls to withdraw, reflecting the strategy of Shinde’s party to garner increased backing from Thackeray.

On November 20, Thackeray faces one of his most significant political challenges. Failure to revive his party’s fortune or launch his son’s political career could cast doubt on his leadership. The Sena (UBT) has already begun attacking the MNS chief, suggesting that his newfound closeness to the BJP stems from concerns for his son’s political future. “His son is contesting the elections, so you can understand his mental state. This leader did not even allow PM Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah to come to Maharashtra, but now he has started praising them,” Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut recently said.