Almost six months of bold course-correction measures coupled with populist programmes to reach targeted segments — farmers, women, and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) — appear to have paid off as the Mahayuti alliance of the BJP, Shiv Sena, and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) turned things around after the Lok Sabha election setback in which it came second to the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), winning only 17 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats.

The BJP itself made an impressive march by crossing the century mark — with wins and leads in 124 seats as of 12.25 pm — with the Mahayuti’s sweep showing the extent to which the ruling combine turned the tide to its favour. The extent of the BJP’s win shows that it is likely to stake a claim to the CM’s chair.

What also helped the BJP campaign was its ability to resolve differences with the RSS, which campaigned extensively for it and the ruling alliance and thus helped its core constituency of voters to shake off disappointment. The BJP also pushed its hardline Hindutva — illustrated by slogans such as “ek hain toh safe hain (together we are safe)” and “batenge toh katenge (divided we fall)” — that worked, uniting and energising its vote base, while negating the MVA’s DMK strategy or the attempt to consolidate Muslims, Dalits, and Kunbis, one of the largest OBC groups in the state.

All 35 outfits affiliated to the RSS proactively campaigned for the BJP and its alliance partners, helping tilt the scales in their favour. “We took the elections seriously by deploying our cadre for door-to-door campaigns,” said a senior Sangh leader. “We realised the dangers of caste and religious polarisation that took place in the Lok Sabha polls.”

After the Lok Sabha polls, the BJP swung into action to identify and mend the faultlines on a war footing. The top leadership of the BJP knew that the Assembly polls were going to be a do-or-die battle where it could not afford to make any mistakes. Taking a leaf from neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, the Mahayuti government first launched its populist flagship programme Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, which appears to have paid huge electoral dividends.

Under this scheme, women in the age bracket 18 to 65 years were given monthly allowances of Rs 1,500 (with a promise to increase it to Rs 2,100 after returning to power). The estimated number of eligible beneficiaries was 2.25 crore women or 55% of the total number of women. In the four months since its introduction, eligible women beneficiaries have received Rs 7,500 in their bank accounts. The six percentage point rise in women voters, including 52 lakh new voters, played a crucial role.

With complex caste equations in play, Mahayuti’s bigger challenge was to get right its social engineering formula. Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil’s reservation agitation led to sharp polarisation between Marathas and OBCs across Marathwada and parts of North and Western Maharashtra. The Maratha votes were expected to go against the BJP, with Sharad Pawar expected to benefit from it, but the Mahayuti managed to negate it as the BJP’s “Hindu unity” pitch seemed to have worked to mend those rifts.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde also worked to address the anti-BJP anger among Marathas. The politically dominant community with 33% population was a crucial factor. Jarange-Patil’s inconsistent politics directed against just Devendra Fadnavis seems to have diluted the impact of the agitation. Several leaders of the Maratha Kranti Morcha also questioned and disapproved of politics overtaking the social agenda of reservation.

“As long as Jarange-Patil struck to social issues we stood by him wholeheartedly. The entire community believes poor Marathas should get reservation. But gradually, politics seized the social cause, which is detrimental for the community welfare,” said a leader of the Morcha.

The Maratha agitation was expected to polarise the OBCs and the BJP embarked on a mission to unite the fragmented 353 communities through a mammoth outreach plan. The Union Minister in charge of the Maharashtra polls, Bhupendra Yadav, along with state top leaders meticulously planned and executed the OBC connect with BJP region-wise. The party went to the extent of proposing to the OBC Commission to enlist seven castes or sub-castes in the Central OBC list. The micro-management of OBCs was a key factor that worked at the grounds in favour of Mahayuti. With 38% population, OBCs are a dominant factor in determining the electoral outcome in 175 of the 288 seats in the state.

In the Lok Sabha polls, a sizable section of Dalits had shifted to the MVA swayed by the Congress campaign on the alleged threat that the BJP would pose to the Constitution and reservation if it returned to power at the Centre with a brute majority. With constitutional amendments a domain of the Centre and national politics and not a state politics issue, the same campaign did not find much purchase in the Assembly polls.

With 65% of Maharashtra’s population dependent on agriculture, the impact of rural economy on state politics was a factor that neither Mahayuti nor MVA could have ignored. Farmers’ unrest was a factor, especially in Vidarbha and Marathwada, where Minimum Support Price for soybean and cotton was a big issue.

Learning the lessons from parliament polls, the state government unrolled a slew of incentives to keep farmers’ anger in check. In the state Budget, the government announced free electricity to farmers using agriculture pumps up to 7.5 HP. In its poll manifesto, the Mahayuti announced a crop loan waiver and promised to repay the differences between MSP and actual procurement rates through the Bhavantar Yojana.

Another corrective measure was removing the minimum export price and reducing export duty on onions. The government also lifted the onion export ban and increased the import duties on edible oils such as soybean oil, crude palm oil, and crude sunflower oil. The basic customs duty on these edible oils was increased from zero to 20%. Also, refined palm oil, refined sunflower oil and refined soyabean oil saw basic customs duty hiked from 12.5% to 32.5%. All these initiatives were taken in September.