Parties have begun their campaign efforts for the Lok Sabha elections – with the BJP focusing its energies on the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya on January 22, even as the Congress rests its hopes on Rahul Gandhi’s east-to-west, 6,700-km Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.

The Opposition INDIA bloc, however, has a task on its hands if it wants to come together to take on the BJP. Aside from decisions on joint campaign efforts, the 28 constituents of the bloc are still working out the arduous seat-sharing negotiations.

Among the states where the partners expect difficult seat-sharing talks is Uttar Pradesh. The INDIA parties with a stake in the state that has 80 Lok Sabha seats include the Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP) and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). What is making their task tougher is that the three between them had won just a handful of seats due to the BJP’s dominant performance in the 2019 and 2014 general elections.

In 2019, when the SP had an alliance with the BSP and RLD, the Akhilesh Yadav-led party won five seats, the Congress just 1 and the RLD none. In 2014, the Congress, in alliance with the RLD, won just two seats and the RLD did not win any. The SP won 5 seats then.

The 2009 polls were far better for these parties – the Congress won 21 seats and the SP 23. But the political landscape in UP has changed considerably since then.

How then should the INDIA bloc parties decide on the most efficient and effective way to take on the BJP, which not only won a majority of the state’s Lok Sabha seats in the last two polls but also won two consecutive Assembly elections in 2017 and 2022?

At the first seat-sharing meeting between the Congress and SP held last week, the parties agreed that the performance in the 2022 Assembly elections would form the basis of the seat-sharing formula, in addition to the hold of the parties in specific seats as well as potential candidates.

“The Congress and the SP had contested separately in the 2022 Assembly elections. The SP had an alliance with the RLD and other smaller parties. So, an idea has been discussed to assess the strength of the parties in each Lok Sabha constituency according to their performances in the Assembly segments that fall within each Lok Sabha seat,” a senior SP leader had said.

In the 2022 Assembly polls, the BJP was the clear winner with 255 of the 403 seats and 41.3% of the vote share. With its NDA allies, it won a total 273 seats and 43.3% of the vote share. The SP was the second largest party with 111 seats and 32.1% of the vote share, with the RLD winning 9 seats from 2.85% of the vote. The Congress, which contested 399 seats, won just 2 and 2.3% of the vote.

Looking at the 2022 Assembly polls in terms of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies, each of which comprises five to six Assembly segments, the INDIA bloc allies came out ahead of the NDA in only 23 seats, of which the SP won 20 on its own strength with the Congress’s votes making a difference in only 3 additional seats. The Congress’s struggle in this election was apparent – it got more than a lakh votes in just four parliamentary constituencies and more than 50,000 votes in 10 seats.

Going by these numbers, the SP can claim the lion’s share of the Lok Sabha seats – at least the 20 it won on its own and most of the remaining 60 seats where it was the runner-up to the BJP and its allies.

The 2022 Assembly polls also show that the Congress stands to gain immensely if the SP’s vote transfers to it in many of the seats. The converse, however, won’t be true, given the low number of votes the Congress won in 2022.

There is, of course, the BSP factor – the party has so far refused to join the INDIA bloc and is likely to go it alone. Though the BSP’s influence has shrunk considerably in recent years, it has still managed to win a considerable chunk of the vote share in Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. It won 19.4% and 19.8% of the vote share in the 2019 and 2014 general elections, respectively. In the 2022 Assembly polls, its vote share fell to 13% from 22.4% in 2017 and 25.9% in 2012.

Though the BSP remains unlikely to join the INDIA bloc, as an exercise, if its votes were added to the INDIA bloc’s tallies in the 2022 Assembly poll formula, it could make a big difference in challenging the NDA. Combining the votes of the BSP with the SP, Congress and RLD, the grouping outperforms the NDA in 53 seats, assuming the votes transfer across the parties. The BSP on its own though is not the biggest party in terms of votes in any seat.

But in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP won 10 seats to outperform both the SP and the Congress.