The battle lines drawn, the two Shiv Senas are taking on each other in at least 49 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections on November 20. Nineteen of these constituencies are in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), the undivided Sena’s core belt. Of these, 12 are in Mumbai City.

The two parties will also take on each other in eight seats each in the Marathwada and Konkan regions; six in Vidarbha; four in North Maharashtra; and four in Western Maharashtra. With the Assembly elections the first since the split of the Sena in June 2022, these contests will be crucial in establishing who will be the claimant to Bal Thackeray’s legacy in the eyes of the voters.

For Uddhav Thackeray and the Shiv Sena (UBT), the elections will be a litmus test. At stake is the opportunity for Uddhav to establish he is the real heir to his fathers political legacy. The results, particularly the fights with the other Sena, will also be crucial for Uddhav in terms of negotiating for the Chief Minister’s chair if the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance comes to power.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has been leading the Shiv Sena from the front and managing to consolidate it despite challenges. The challenge now is to ensure that not only the Mahayuti returns to power but also that the Shiv Sena expands its electoral base. The target is winning more than 40 seats, which is the number of MLAs he broke away with during his rebellion. The BJP’s central leadership is said to have assured Shinde he will retain his chair if he crosses that mark.

Considering these high stakes for both, the battle of the Senas will be closely watched. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the two Senas faced off against each other in 13 seats. Of these, the Sena (UBT) won seven seats, while the Shinde-led Sena won six seats.

The MMR region will see the most prominent fights, including the high-profile battle in Thane’s Kopri Panchpakhadi, where Shinde will face his late political mentor Anand Dighe’s nephew Kedar who has got a Sena (UBT) ticket.

In Mumbai’s Worli, Uddhav Thackeray’s son and former minister Aaditya is taking on Rajya Sabha MP Milind Deora who is contesting for the Sena. Sena’s senior leader and sitting MLA Sada Sarvankar is up against Mahesh Sawan of Sena (UBT) in Mahim.

Mumbai will be a challenge for Shinde as the party managed to win only one of the three Lok Sabha seats in the city in the recent Lok Sabha polls. The Sena (UBT), which still retains support in the city, won Mumbai South, South Central. The Shinde Sena only managed to win Mumbai North West, that too by just 48 votes, indicating that the party is still struggling in Mumbai.

The Konkan belt is also important for the Sena because of the undivided Sena’s base in the region. In the recent Lok Sabha polls, the Shiv Sena (UBT) was completely wiped out here, losing all the five seats it contested.

In Konkan’s Kudal seat, Union Minister Narayan Rane’s son Nilesh is in the fray on the Shiv Sena ticket against the Sena (UBT)’s sitting MLA Vaibhav Naik. The latter is a staunch opponent of the Rane family.

State minister Uday Samant and his brother Kiran are contesting from Ratnagiri and Rajapur respectively against the Sena (UBT)’s Bal Mane and Rajan Salvi, the Rajapur MLA. In Sawantwadi, state minister Deepak Kesarkar will face the Sena (UBT)’s Rajan Teli.

In Marathwada, which was once considered a stronghold of the undivided Sena, Abdul Sattar, MLA Sanjay Shirsat, and Santosh Bangar will contest against Sena (UBT) candidates in Sambhaji Nagar West and Kalamnuri seats, respectively. Two Sena ministers are in the fray in Vidarbha. While Tanaji Sawant is in the fray from Paranda taking on Sena (UBT)’s Rahul Patil, Sanjay Rathod is in the fray from Digras against Pawan Jaiswal of Uddhav’s party.

In North Maharashtra, Pachora will be the high-profile contest, with sitting Sena MLA Kishor Patil and Sena UBT candidate Vaishali Suryavanshi who are cousins facing off against each other. Malegaon will see a fight between state minister Dadaji Bhuse and Sena (UBT)’s Advay Hiray who is the son of former minister Prashant Hiray.