“Have you seen the OTT series Khakee (Khakee: The Bihar Chapter) on the Internet? In that series, a Mahato leader spoke about the need for a government of his caste in the state, so that his community could have protection from the police. We also need a leader from our caste who can fight for us. I find Jairam Mahato as one such leader,” said Neelam Mahato, 24.

The 29-year-old Jairam, a PhD student, caught the imagination of many in Jharkhand in these Assembly elections with his call to end “shoshan (exploitation)” and provide the people of the state their rights. But for many such as Neelam, a resident of Murramkala village in Ramgarh Assembly constituency, which voted in Jharkhand’s second phase of polling Wednesday, Jairam also filled a crucial gap: that of an OBC leader in a state whose politics has been dominated by tribals vs non-tribals.

In the tussle for the Mahato vote, Jairam’s newly floated Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM) party is emerging as a direct competitor of BJP ally and NDA member All Jharkhand Students’ Union (AJSU) Party. So far, clubbed with the non-tribals despite their formidable numbers, OBCs have been seen as largely supporters of the BJP and allies, and, to a smaller extent, the JMM and RJD.

AJSU Party president Sudesh Kumar Mahato, a former deputy CM, has been Jharkhand’s biggest OBC face.

The Mahatos, who are Kudmis, form around 14% of Jharkhand’s population, making them the largest OBC group in the state.

From Ramgarh, the JLKM fielded Paneshwar Kumar, 25. Neelam, who also urged others in the village to vote for the JLKM, said she didn’t know Paneshwar but that didn’t concern her. Her vote was for Jairam. Her sister-in-law Manju added: “Jairam is an aggressive leader. Only he can fight for the due share of the Mahato community, who are the moolnivasi (original residents) of Jharkhand.”

A district office-bearer of the Congress admitted the JLKM’s impact, at least in Ramgarh. In a seat where 40% of the population are Mahatos, both the AJSU Party and the Congress fielded Mahato candidates. However, as per the Congress leader, Jairam’s candidate Paneshwar could walk away with the Mahato vote, and hence start with the advantage of 53,000-plus votes in the bag already.

“JLKM BJP ko half karega aur Congress ko saaf karega (The JLKM will reduce the BJP to half, and the Congress to zero),” the Congress district leader said, adding that the impact on the NDA coalition will be lesser due to the well-established network of the AJSU Party in the area.

On the INDIA bloc side, the JMM may maintain its grip on the tribals, who form 27% of the state population and who continue to hold party veteran Shibu Soren in high regard. JMM ally Congress counts on the Muslim vote, which is around 15% of the population.

The upper caste vote in the state has been split between the BJP and Congress. The Mahatos have a presence in around 32 of the 81 Assembly seats in Jharkhand, with the maximum influence in Giridih, Hazaribagh, Koderma, Bokaro, Ranchi and Ramgarh. The second-largest OBC group in Jharkhand are the Sahus, who are a largely business community and supporters of the BJP, followed by the Koeris, Yadavs, Kushwahas and Telis. The Yadavs are largely INDIA bloc supporters.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, when the AJSU Party contested separately after seat-sharing talks with the BJP failed, it got 8.1% of the votes while the BJP got 33.37%. On the other side, the JMM got 18.72% votes, the Congress 13.88% and the RJD 2.75%, and formed the government.

BJP leaders argue that had the party managed to strike an alliance with the AJSU Party ahead of the polls, the two together would have got more votes than the JMM-Congress-RJD combine in 2019.

This time, the AJSU Party is contesting 10 seats as part of the NDA. While the JLKM has put up candidates in as many as 71 of the 81 constituencies, a big drawback for it is that most of its candidates are little known. Jairam himself is contesting from Dumri and Bermo seats.

Congress spokesperson R K Sinha admitted the draw of Jairam among young and first-time voters, but said it could not be a sign that the OBCs may rally behind him. “The OBC vote is split across parties in Jharkhand,” Sinha said, adding that the INDIA bloc was confident of getting a big share of the OBC votes.

Jharkhand BJP spokesperson Pradeep Sinha countered this, saying OBCs have largely supported the BJP in the state, and can see the representation the party has given to OBCs in the government and party. The BJP even chose a non-tribal, Raghubar Das, as Chief Minister, Pradeep Sinha said. “Jairam is getting support because he is talking about local issues. But a majority of the youths who support him do not turn up for voting.”

The JLKM could, however, pose a challenge to AJSU Party chief Sudesh Mahto in the Silli seat of Ranchi district. Jairam has fielded Devendra Nath Mahato from the seat where Sudesh is a four-time sitting MLA. The JMM has fielded Amit Kumar Mahto, who is popular locally and in 2014, defeated Sudesh in the seat.

Rasraj Mahato, a resident of Silli town in Silli constituency, said the JLKM may be hurt by the novelty factor. “Except Jairam, all of the other candidates of the party are unknown faces and most of them are young. On the other hand, the AJSU Party is established, has been winning Assembly polls and has been in power with the BJP in the past. Plus, if the BJP-AJSU Party alliance wins, Sudesh will certainly be a deputy CM, and this will help in development (of the seat),” says Rasraj.

Arun Yadav, a businessman in Ramgarh town, said that while the JLKM may not win, it will be a deciding factor in several constituencies by cutting votes of both the NDA and INDIA blocs.

But Neelam countered that people are tired of established parties. “Sudesh has become a sarkari leader who enjoys power and refrains from taking up local issues aggressively under the pressure of the BJP. If he becomes a minister, he will have to work as per the wishes of the BJP. We need a leader to raise their voice for us,” said Neelam.

She drew a parallel with Bhim Army leader Chandrashekhar Azad, a rising Dalit face of Uttar Pradesh who won this year’s Lok Sabha elections from the Nagina seat.