With the Lok Sabha polls fast approaching, the BJP in Karnataka finds itself in a curious jam in its Hindutva stronghold constituencies in the coastal belt of the state.

Though the Modi wave — on a new high after the Ayodhya Ram Mandir consecration — is likely to catapult even an absolute novice fielded by the BJP from these seats of Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi-Chikamagalur, the party is having second thoughts about fielding its sitting MPs.

The three Lok Sabha seats, out of the total 28 in the state, have always voted strongly for the BJP. In 2019, they registered nearly 75% polling, with the BJP’s three candidates winning by the three highest victory margins in the state.

Uttara Kannada

In 2019, the BJP’s Anantkumar Hegde, a five-time MP from the seat known for his controversial remarks, won Uttar Kannada by a resounding margin of 4.79 lakh votes – the highest in the state.

The ground has shifted however. One of the young stars in the BJP pantheon at the height of the Ram Mandir movement, who first became an MP at the age of 28 in 1996, the 55-year-old has not been active in politics for the past three years, reportedly due to an unconfirmed illness.

Besides, in last year’s state elections, the Congress came out strong in the parliamentary constituency, winning five of the eight Assembly segments.

However, that Hegde is keen to return to the centre stage is evident, given how he came swinging out ahead of the Ayodhya consecration, demanding that other mosques allegedly built on temples be razed, and accused Chief Minister Siddaramaiah of “selling his mentality for minority votes”. He was subsequently booked by the police for hate speech.

But at meetings of party workers in the area, Hegde’s absence on the ground has been noted and remarked upon. At a BJP meeting in Belagavi district, parts of which come under the Uttara Kannada seat, workers are believed to have asked him what he had done for them, or for development.

A source said: “Hegde may win on the Narendra Modi and Hindutva card, but he will face a stiff challenge due to the lack of development work in many parts of the region and his absence for a long period.”

This week, a BJP leader from the Khanapur region, Jayant Tinaikar, suggested openly that Hegde, a Brahmin, should nominate a replacement and step aside. (The party is unlikely to take the risk of not keeping Hegde in the loop if it goes in for a new face.)

A name doing the rounds is that of former Karnataka Speaker and ex-MLA Vishweshwar Hegde Kageri, 62, a staunch RSS man, with sources saying he has already started work on the ground after getting the party nod.

Another strong contender is Sulibele Chakravarthy, 43, who has been on the periphery of BJP politics in Karnataka but has participated in campaigns for PM Narendra Modi through the Namo Brigade created ahead of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. Recently, Sulibele was in the news for attacking Congress national president Mallikarjun Kharge as “useless”.

Congress spokesperson Ramesh Babu said Hegde and Sulibele’s remarks reflected their desperation for a ticket. “They are under the impression that if they abuse senior Congress leaders, they will be recognised by the BJP and they will be leaders.”

Dakshina Kannada

Former Karnataka BJP president Nalin Kumar Kateel, 57, has been the MP from this seat since it was created in 2008, and has been gradually expanding his victory margin – from 40,000 votes in 2009 to 1.43 lakh votes in 2014 to 2.74 lakh votes in 2019 (the third highest margin in the state that year).

In last year’s state polls as well, the BJP had demonstrated its hold in the area by winning six of the eight Assembly segments.

It is this long-term association of the region with the party and the Modi wave that are seen to have been behind Kateel’s impressive 2014 and 2019 wins, with the MP otherwise accused of mediocre performance and personal indiscretions.

Seen as a candidate of BJP national organisation secretary B L Santhosh (who is himself out of favour following last year’s Assembly poll loss), Kateel also came under a cloud following the July 26, 2022, murder of party youth leader Praveen Nettaru in Dakshina Kannada, with BJP faithful accusing him of having business transactions with those suspected of the killing.

The fact that Kateel has failed to cultivate a loyal support base, coasting on his RSS connections, may also go against him.

Besides, Kateel belongs to the dominant land-holding Bunt community while a majority of the BJP cadre in Dakshina Kannada, including the killed Nettaru, come from OBC groups like the Billavas.

Sources said that the top contenders now for the Dakshina Kannada seat are leaders from these groups, with one strong name being Arun Puthila, whose decision to contest against the BJP’s official candidate from Puttur in last year’s Assembly polls cost the party the seat.

Another contender is believed to be Union minister Shobha Karandlaje, who hails from the region. However, as per other sources, two other Union ministers who are currently Rajya Sabha MPs may get the Dakshina Kannada ticket – S Jaishankar or Nirmala Sitharaman (both, incidentally Brahmins).

Udupi Chikamagalur

The BJP had registered its second highest victory margin in the state in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in Udupi Chikamagalur, which straddles the coastal Udupi district and the hilly Chikamagalur district.

The winner was Shobha Karandlaje, who more than doubled her victory margin between 2014 and 2019, from 1.81 lakh votes to 3.49 lakh. However, the support to her in the seat has been waning, with the candidate she defeated in 2019, Pramod Madhwaraj, the son of former BJP MP Manorama Madhwaraj, now in the BJP and seen as a contender for Udupi Chikamagalur.

The 2023 state results had also seen a big slide for the BJP in the eight Assembly segments in this seat, with its tally dropping from seven in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls to four.

One other contender from this Lok Sabha seat is former BJP general secretary C T Ravi, who is seeking to reverse his fortunes after having lost the 2023 state polls.

“There is also concern in the BJP that the Congress may field its former MP Jayaprakash Hegde (a winner in 2012) who has a good standing in the region. The BJP may change its candidate as a result,” Congress sources said.