On Friday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicked off his Maharashtra campaign from Dhule and Nashik. This was not without reason – the vegetable- and fruit-growing belt of North Maharashtra, a BJP stronghold, has been hit by rebellion in at least 14 of its total 35 seats spread across the Jalgaon, Nandurbar, Nashik and Dhule districts.

Among the rebels are nine from the ruling Mahayuti and eight from the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), who could cut into the votes of both alliances’ official candidates.

The rebellion-hit seats include three where former Mahayuti MP are in the fray as Independents – NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal’s nephew and former Nashik MP Sameer Bhujbal, contesting from Nandgaon; BJP minister Vijay Kumar Gavit’s daughter and former two-time BJP MP Heena Gavit, contesting from Akkalkuwa; and A T Patil, a former two-time BJP MP from Jalgaon, contesting from Erandol.

Leaders from both the Mahayuti and MVA said their alliances have faced mass rebellion and infighting, owing to the recent upheaval in the state’s political landscape after the split in the Shiv Sena and NCP, and the creation of two rival alliances with three major parties in each.

“Since the MVA won on four of the six seats in the Lok Sabha elections, there were many aspirants for each constituency and it was impossible to satisfy all the aspirants while giving tickets,” said an MVA leader, adding that the alliance is making efforts to ensure the rebellions won’t damage the electoral prospects of its official candidates.

However, Cabinet minister Chhagan Bhujbal, in the fray from Yeola and whose nephew Sameer is an Independent candidate, downplayed the rebellion and infighting in the Mahayuti, saying, “Rebels are there in every election and the infighting won’t affect the ruling alliance’s electoral prospects.”

However, some voters say rebel candidates have added to the confusion over rival Shiv Sena and NCP factions fighting each other. “There is already confusion among voters about which candidate is with the Sena and NCP, and which faction is with which side (Mahayuti or MVA)… The rebel candidates have added to that confusion,” says Raju Patil, a farmer from the Dhule district.

The other major Mahayuti rebels contesting as Independents are the BJP’s Keda Aher from Nashik district’s Chandwad, former deputy mayor Ashwin Sonwane from Jalgaon City, Amol Shinde from Pachora, Shirish Chaudhary from Amalner; and Shiv Sena’s Jalgaon district president Harshal Mane from Erandol, and Rajshri Ahirrao from Deolali.

The MVA’s rebels contesting as Independents in North Maharashtra include Shiv Sena (UBT)’s former MLA Nirmala Gavit from Igatpuri, former deputy mayor Kulbhushan Patil in Jalgaon City, and district president Hilal Mali in Dhule Rural; Congress district president Shyamkant Saner in Sindkheda, respectively; the NCP (SP)’s former MLA Dilip Wagh in Pachora; and Irshad Jahagirdar, who has been fielded by the the Samajwadi Party in Dhule City despite being an MVA ally.

The Assembly election in North Maharashtra has become a high-stakes contest for the Mahayuti, particularly the BJP, owing to its debacle during the recent Lok Sabha polls that saw the ruling alliance win only Jalgaon and Raver of the total six seats in the region. The MVA won the remaining four Lok Sabha seats – two by the Congress, and one each for the NCP (SP) and Shiv Sena (UBT).

Looking to resurrect the party’s base in the region, Modi kickstarted the BJP’s campaign from North Maharashtra’s Dhule and Nashik with a scathing attack against the Congress, accusing it of indulging in caste politics, and invoking the Other Backward Class (OBC) card in a region with a sizeable population from the community.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP had emerged as the leader in the region, with wins in 13 constituencies, followed by the six seats for then ally and undivided Shiv Sena. Among the Opposition, the undivided NCP had won seven seats and the Congress five. Of the remaining seats, two went to the AIMIM and two to Independents.

Almost all the rebels in North Maharashtra have their own support bases and dominance in their constituency and region, with the potential to alter the election outcome.

For example, in the Nandurbar district, Heena Gavit belongs to the influential Gavit political family and has been a two-time BJP MP from the tribal Nandurbar Lok Sabha seat. Her father and state Tribal Development Minister Vijaykumar Gavit is seeking his seventh consecutive term from the Nandurbar Assembly seat on a BJP ticket. In the Akkalkuwa seat, Heena is in the fray against the Mahayuti’s official candidate and Sena MLC Amshya Padvi and the Congress’s K C Padvi, a former minister.

Similarly in Chandwad, after the BJP’s two-time sitting MLA Rahul Aher was renominated as the party’s candidate despite putting forward his cousin and former Nashik district president Keda Aher’s name for the seat, the latter decided to contest independently, sparking something of a family feud. Keda, son of the late state health minister Daulatrao Aher, will face the Mahayuti’s official candidate Rahul and the Congress’s Shirishkumar Kotwal.

In Nandgaon, state minister Bhujbal’s nephew Sameer is contesting independently against the Mahayuti’s official candidate and Sena MLA Suhas Kande. The Bhujbal family is dominant in Nashik, especially the Yeola, Nandgaon and Manmad areas.