On Wednesday, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo Mamata Banerjee said seat-sharing with the Congress in the state’s Lok Sabha seats was off the table. The dispute arose over the number of seats the TMC was ready to give to the Congress as part of the INDIA alliance, with the Congress rejecting the offer of the 2 Lok Sabha seats that it had won in the previous polls.

Seat-sharing talks in Bengal were always going to be difficult, particularly given the hesitance of the state units of the Congress and CPI(M) towards an alliance with the TMC. As the Congress central leadership remains hopeful of achieving a breakthrough, here is why it has few cards in its hands:

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, which the TMC has been citing as proof of the Congress’s weakness in the state, the Congress contested 40 of the state’s 42 seats and won 2, with 5.7% of the vote share. It was the party’s second worst Lok Sabha performance in the state since 1998.

While the TMC won 22 seats with 43.7% of the vote share, the BJP emerged as the primary opposition for the first time in a Lok Sabha election in the state, displacing the Congress and CPI(M) to win 18 seats and 40.6% of the vote share.

While the Congress won comfortably in Baharampur, with its state chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury getting 45.5% of the vote share, it faced a much tougher fight in Maldaha Dakshin, where Abu Hasem Khan Chowdhury’s 35.1% vote share was just 0.7% points ahead of the BJP runner-up.

In the rest of the state, the party’s performance was dismal, with the Congress finishing as the runner-up in just 1 seat, third in 5 seats, and fifth in 1 seat. In as many as 31 of the 42 seats, it came fourth.

The Congress’s 2014 Lok Sabha poll performance had been only slightly better – winning four of the 42 seats it contested, with 9.7% of the vote share. Besides Baharampur and Maldaha Dakshin, which it had won with the same candidates as in 2019, the Congress had won Maldaha Uttar and Jangipur.

In the other seats, the party was the runner-up in only 2 seats, while finishing third or lower in as many as 36 seats.

Historically, the Congress hasn’t been a major player in the state’s Lok Sabha polls since the 1960s. It hasn’t crossed the 10-seat mark since 1984 and its vote share has been declining consistently since then. In the first 11 Lok Sabha elections till 1998 though, the Congress had won more than 35% of the votes in all but two polls.

Then came the formation of the TMC by Mamata as a breakaway faction of the Congress. In 1998, the Congress saw its vote share fall to 15.2% from 40.1% in 1996. The party’s vote share hasn’t exceeded 15% since then and dropped to less than 10% in the last two polls.

In terms of seats, the Congress won a majority of the state’s Lok Sabha constituencies in 1952, 1957 and 1962, but has been the single largest party just once since then, in 1967. After the CPI(M) emerged as the dominant player in Bengal in the early 1970s, the Congress was relegated to playing second fiddle. Since 1998 and the TMC’s formation, the Congress has been the second largest party twice and finished as the third largest party thrice.

The Congress hasn’t fared much better in the recent Assembly polls either. In 2021, it won none of the 92 seats it contested in an alliance with the CPI(M) and Indian Secular Front (ISF), securing just 3% of the vote share. The party was the runner-up in just 6 seats, finishing third or lower in the remaining 86 seats.

Ally CPI(M) failed to win a single seat, garnering just 4.8% of the votes in the 138 seats it contested. The ISF, floated just ahead of the elections, fared better, with 1 seat.

The TMC won in a landslide in the 2021 elections, with 213 of the 294 Assembly seats and 48.5% of the vote share, while the BJP continued its 2019 Lok Sabha run in Bengal by recording its best ever performance in the state, winning 77 seats and 38.5% of the vote share.

The Congress’s 2016 Assembly poll performance was considerably better – it had won 44 seats from the 92 it contested, and secured 12.3% of the vote share. Not only was it the second largest party overall, it finished as the runner-up in 39 seats and third or lower in nine seats.

The CPI(M), too, had fared better, but despite getting 19.8% of the vote share, it had finished behind the Congress, winning 26 of the 148 seats it contested.

The TMC was the dominant party in 2016 too, winning 211 seats and 44.9% of the vote share. The BJP at the time had won just three seats from the 291 contested, but was close to the Congress in terms of vote share at 10.2%.

Historically, the Congress hasn’t been at the forefront of state politics since the early 1970s. It won its last Assembly election in 1972, after which the CPI(M) won seven consecutive state polls until losing to the TMC in 2011. After that, the TMC has been the dominant state party.

Since 1972, when it recorded its highest ever seat tally of 216 seats in what was then a 280-member Assembly, the Congress has not won more than 82 seats in the state (in 1996). After the TMC was founded in 1998, the Congress’s seat tally hasn’t exceeded 44.

In terms of vote share, the Congress has crossed the 40%-mark just once since 1972. Since 2001, its vote share has been below 15% in every poll.