On Wednesday, all 288 Assembly seats in Maharashtra will vote in a single phase, while the remaining 38 of 81 seats in Jharkhand will do so. The first phase of polling happened in Jharkhand on November 13.

While Maharashtra has 29 seats reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 25 for Scheduled Tribes (ST), among Jharkhand’s second phase seats are eight seats kept for STs and three for SCs.

The Maharashtra contest will see the ruling Mahayuti – comprising the Devendra Fadnavis-led BJP, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – engage in a rematch of the Lok Sabha polls. In the general elections held earlier this year, the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance’s Congress, Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP) had emerged ahead of the Mahayuti.

The Lok Sabha setback was the second electoral dent for the BJP in Maharashtra after the 2019 Assembly polls ended in a hung House – the BJP won 105 seats and a 25.75% vote share, followed by the Shiv Sena at 56 seats and 16.41%, the NCP at 54 and 16.71%, and the Congress at 44 and 15.87%. Smaller parties and Independents won the remaining 29 seats.

After no party was able to win an absolute majority, and the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance collapsed, the state was briefly placed under President’s Rule. Days later, the BJP’s Fadnavis and a section of the NCP led by Ajit Pawar came together to stake a claim to form the government, but anticipating that their hastily cobbled together alliance would not clear a floor test, resigned after having taken oath as the CM and Deputy CM in a rushed midnight ceremony.

The impasse only ended after the Congress and undivided Shiv Sena and NCP formed the MVA and, with adequate numbers, staked a claim to form the government with Thackeray at the helm.

But since then, Maharashtra has been in a state of political tumult, particularly after the splits in the Sena (in 2022) and later the NCP (in 2023) engineered by the BJP that led to the fall of the MVA government and the formation of the Mahayuti government led by Shinde.

In the recent Lok Sabha polls though, these series of political splits plus the Opposition narrative seem to have gone against the BJP. It won just nine of the 28 seats it contested, falling from 23 in 2019, followed by the Shiv Sena at seven of 15, and the NCP at one of four.

The MVA together won 30 seats, with the Congress emerging as the leading party, winning 13 of the 17 seats it contested. The Shiv Sena (UBT) won nine of the 21 seats it contested while the NCP(SP) won eight of its 10 seats.

Breaking the Lok Sabha results down to the Assembly segment level shows that the MVA would have narrowly cleared the 145-seat majority mark with leads in 153 segments, followed by the Mahayuti in 125 seats, with the remaining 10 seats going to Independents and smaller parties.

What is crucial though is that, in terms of vote share, the alliances were neck-and-neck – the MVA had a marginal advantage at 43.71% compared to 43.55% for the Mahayuti.

In the Jharkhand seats voting in the second phase, concentrated in the Santhal Pargana and North Chhotanagpur regions, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM)-led alliance had led in the 2019 Assembly elections en route to coming to power under Hemant Soren.

The JMM won 13 of the second phase seats in 2019, followed by the allies Congress at eight and the CPI(ML)L at one. The BJP won 12 seats, its now ally All Jharkhand Students’ Union Party (AJSUP) won two, and the erstwhile Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (JVM) that merged with the BJP in 2020, won another two seats.

The BJP was outdone by the JMM on seats despite securing a much larger vote share in the second phase seats. The BJP’s 33.38% was far ahead of the JMM’s 18.48%, followed by the Congress’s 14.26% and the AJSUP’s 9.6%.

In the recently concluded Lok Sabha polls, the results at the Assembly segment level show the BJP-AJSUP combine comfortably ahead with leads in 21 segments, with the JMM-Congress alliance leading in 12 segments, and the remaining going to Independents and smaller parties. In terms of vote shares too, the NDA stood at 45.41% and the INDIA bloc at 37%.

Seats in Maharashtra: 288 – 29 SC and 25 ST

Turnout in 2019: 61.44%

Seats in Jharkhand Phase 2: 38 – 3 SC and 8 ST

Turnout in 2019: 66.9%

BJP: 102 candidates (68% of party’s total candidates)

Congress: 59 (58%)

Shiv Sena (UBT): 63 (66%)

NCP (SP): 51 (61%)

Shiv Sena: 52 (54%)

NCP: 32 (54%)

BJP: 14 (44%)

JMM: 5 (25%)

Congress: 5 (42%)

AJSUP: 4 (67%)

RJD: 2 (100%)

Of the 38 seats voting in Jharkhand’s second phase, 28 seats have three or more candidates facing pending cases. Mandu has the most such candidates at nine.

BJP: 144 candidates (97% of party’s total candidates)

Congress: 94 (93%)

Shiv Sena (UBT): 94 (99%)

NCP (SP): 80 (95%)

Shiv Sena: 79 (89%)

NCP: 58 (98%)

Parag Shah, the BJP’s Ghatkopar candidate is the richest in the fray with assets worth Rs 3,383 crore.

BJP: 23 (72%)

JMM: 18 (90%)

Congress: 10 (83%)

AJSUP: 5 (83%)

RJD: 2 (100%)

The SP’s Aquil Akhtar, contesting in Pakur, has the highest assets in the second phase at Rs 403 crore.

Youngest: 13 candidates aged 25, the lowest eligible age, including one each from the NCP(SP), Congress and Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi.

Oldest: 87-year-old Laxman Pawar, an Independent contesting Georai

Youngest: Nine candidates aged 25, including five Independents

Oldest: 75-year-old Hiralal Sankhawar, contesting Sindri for the All India Forward Bloc

Nagpur South West | Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, BJP, vs Prafulla Gudhade, Congress

Kopri-Pachpakhadi | CM Eknath Shinde, Shiv Sena, vs Kedar Dighe, nephew of late Sena veteran Anand Dighe, Shiv Sena (UBT)

Baramati | Deputy CM Ajit Pawar, NCP, vs Ajit’s nephew and Sharad Pawar’s grandnephew Yugendra Pawar, NCP (SP)

Worli | Former CM Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya Thackeray, Shiv Sena (UBT), vs former Congress MP Milind Deora, Shiv Sena

Sakoli | State party chief Nana Patole, Congress, vs Avinash Brahmankar, BJP

Barhait | CM Hemant Soren, JMM, vs Gamaliel Hembrom, BJP

Silli | AJSUP chief Sudesh Mahato vs former MLA Amit Mahato, JMM

Gandey | Sitting MLA Kalpana Soren, JMM, vs Muniya Devi, BJP

Dhanwar | Former CM Babulal Marandi, BJP, vs Rajkumar Yadav, CPI(ML)L

Jamtara | Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita Soren, BJP, vs sitting MLA Irfan Ansari, Congress