With the BJP dropping clear hints of being open to tying up with the Janata Dal (United) again, Nitish Kumar looks set to return as Chief Minister at the head of the NDA government in Bihar. Nitish may have two Deputy CMs from the BJP, along similar lines as the post-2020 Assembly polls formula.

Nitish is most likely to tender his resignation and then stake a fresh claim to form the government with the NDA on Sunday. The BJP and JD(U) are likely to hold party meetings and then convene a meeting of the alliance to choose Nitish as its leader.

Sources said that the BJP would choose an Extremely Backward Class (EBC) leader for one of the Deputy CM posts, and that is likely to be Renu Devi. The Nonia leader was one of the Deputy CMs after the 2020 polls – becoming Bihar’s first woman to hold the post – till Nitish switched sides in August 2022 to the RJD-Congress alliance.

BJP insiders said that as of now there is no unanimity over the choice of the second Deputy CM. Among the leaders being considered are Sushil Kumar Modi, who has served a long stint as Nitish’s Deputy CM in the past and is currently a Rajya Sabha MP; current Leader of the Opposition Vijay Kumar Sinha; and Union Minister of State, Home Affairs, Nityanand Rai.

“The BJP is mulling over a combination of OBC-EBC or EBC-upper caste. While Renu Devi looks the obvious choice for an EBC face, the party has not yet finalised its second deputy CM,” a BJP leader said.

Sushil Modi and Sinha told The Indian Express that they would go with whatever decision the BJP’s central leadership takes in the interest of the party. “In politics, no gate shuts permanently,” Sushil Modi, who Thursday said he had no idea regarding Nitish’s plans, said. Sinha said: “We have collective leadership and we will go by what our top leaders decide.”

Asked if he was ready to accept Nitish as Bihar CM again, Union minister Giriraj Singh, a voluble BJP leader who Thursday ruled out the possibility, said: “I am a simple worker of the party.”

The JD(U)’s 45 MLAs and the BJP’s 78, along with the support of one Independent legislator, together make up 124 MLAs, more than the simple majority of 122 in the Bihar Assembly.

However, as per sources, the JD(U)’s current partner RJD may not let Nitish have an easy walk. With 79 of its own MLAs, plus the Congress and three Left parties, the RJD can count on 114 MLAs – just 8 short of a majority. Sources said the RJD might reach out to some JD(U) MLAs to stop Nitish from forming the government with the BJP.

Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) patron and former CM Jitan Ram Manjhi, who has 4 MLAs, denied that he was among NDA members in touch with the RJD. “I am very much with the NDA. I welcome Nitish Kumar,” Manjhi, whose ties with Nitish have been bitter since the JD(U) leader appointed and then summarily removed him as CM in nine months in 2014, said.

RJD national spokesperson and Rajya Sabha MP Manoj Kumar Jha, however, strongly dismissed the possibility of his party trying to wean away MLAs to form the government. “We do not engage in such things. But we also want Nitish Kumar to clarify things. There is an atmosphere of uncertainty among the people as well,” he said.

JD(U) spokesperson Neeraj Kumar said to this: “There is no confusion in state politics. Nitish Kumar is very much at the helm of affairs.”

Sources in the BJP said while the details had been finalised between Nitish and the party’s top central leadership, the ground had been laid by a survey conducted by it in Bihar for the Lok Sabha polls. The survey didn’t paint a very rosy picture for the BJP, indicating that the NDA tally in the state would be below 25 this time. In 2019, when the JD(U) was a part of it, the NDA had won 39 of Bihar’s 40 Lok Sabha seats.

While that survey was done before the consecration of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya, the BJP’s calculation was that even with the boost provided by this, it might add 7-8 seats at best in case the JD(U), RJD and Congress fought together.

The BJP’s target for this Lok Sabha election is bettering its 2019 tally, and it has been clear that this means mopping up as many seats as possible in states where it did well, as the South may see a slide in its numbers.

A source said that the final nitty-gritty was wrapped up in discussions “between the top leaders of the BJP – Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Amit Shah and party chief J P Nadda – and Nitish”.

Another leader admitted that while the BJP state unit had reservations about Nitish heading their alliance again, the JD(U) supremo was unlikely to have considered any proposal that did not include him returning as CM. “But the BJP was clear that it would have two deputy CMs,” the leader said, adding that in the party, everyone bows to the eventual decision of the top leadership.

In another sign of the fast-unravelling situation in Bihar, Nitish attended the customary high tea organised on Republic Day by the Governor, with his Deputy CM Tejashwi Yadav absent. A JD(U) minister occupied the chair next to Nitish which was kept for Tejashwi, after removing his name plate.

To the beleaguered Opposition INDIA alliance, which first came together under Patna with Nitish’s blessings, JD(U) Bihar president Umesh Kushwaha had a message: “Though we are still with the INDIA bloc, it should introspect why things are going wrong.”