The Sambhal district in western UP, where clashes erupted Sunday over a court-ordered survey at the Shahi Jama Masjid – in which four people were killed and several police personnel injured – has been a stronghold of the principal Opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) for about three decades.

The mosque in Sambhal town, where the second survey was conducted Sunday, falls under the Sambhal Assembly constituency where Muslims account for over 65% of the electorate.

The SP’s Sambhal MLA Iqbal Mehmood has been winning the seat for six consecutive elections since 1996. The ruling BJP had won the seat only once so far, in 1993, when the SP had finished the runner-up. The BJP has been the runner-up in this seat in the last four Assembly elections since 2007.

This seat is part of the Sambhal Lok Sabha constituency which also includes the Assembly segments of Kundarki, Bilari, Chandausi and Asmoli. Of these seats, in the 2022 Assembly polls, the BJP had won only Chandausi, with the remaining three bagged by the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP.

Zia-ur-Rehman Barq, 35, is the current SP MP from Sambhal, who is the grandson of former party stalwart late Shafiqur Rehman Barq, who passed away at the age of 94 in February this year. Shafiqur Rehman was a four-time MLA from Sambhal and five-time Lok Sabha MP – twice from Sambhal and thrice from neighbouring Moradabad.

In the Lok Sabha elections earlier this year, Zia won the Sambhal constituency by defeating the BJP’s Parmeshwar Lal Saini by over 1.21 lakh votes. He resigned as the MLA from Kundarki, which falls in Moradabad district, after becoming an MP.

In the recent bypolls, however, the BJP won from the minority community- dominated Kundarki seat, where its candidate Ramveer Singh trounced the SP’s Mohammad Rizwan by over 1.44 lakh votes. Earlier, since 1996, the seat has been picked by either the SP or the BSP.

The SP has also maintained its dominance in the Sambhal parliamentary seat, winning it five times since 1998. SP founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was elected as the MP from here twice – in 1998 and 1999 – while his brother Ram Gopal Yadav won the seat in 2004. The BSP won the seat twice – in 1996, when its candidate D P Yadav was elected, and in 2009, when Shafiqur Rehman bagged it on the party’s ticket.

The BJP has also managed to win the Sambhal Lok Sabha seat only once so far – in the 2014 polls amid the Narendra Modi wave. The Muslim votes had then got split between the SP’s Shafiqur Rehman and BSP candidate Aqeel Ur Rehman Khan, leading to the BJP’s Satyapal Singh clinch the seat by 5,174 votes.

In the 2019 polls, Shafiqur Rehman made a comeback, defeating the BJP’s Parmeshwar Lal Saini by over 1.74 lakh votes. Contesting on the SP’s ticket, he also got the support of the Mayawati-led BSP, which had then forged an alliance with the SP.

Of nearly 19.50 lakh voters in the Sambhal parliamentary constituency, Muslims account for about 9 lakh, followed by Jatavs (Dalit) at 2.30 lakh, Yadavs (OBC) at 1.40 lakh, Sainis (OBC) at 1.15 lakh, and 1.7 lakh from upper castes. Sainis and upper caste groups have been traditional BJP voters in this belt.

“As per social equations, BJP has not enough voters in Sambhal. Party won when Muslim votes got divided. The current dispute over the mosque is unlikely to help the BJP much here. Its only fallout may be that Jatav voters could shift to the BJP,” said a BJP office-bearer from Sambhal.

Sambhal has a rich history. The region had been under the rule of several emperors and dynasties, from Ashoka to the Lodis and the Mughals, according to the Sambhal district administration’s website. Babar, the first Mughal ruler, built the first Babri Masjid in Sambhal, it says, stating that he later made his son Humayun the Sambhal governor. Sambhal was said to have flourished in Akbar’s reign, it adds.

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Lalmani is an Assistant Editor with The Indian Express, and is based in New Delhi. He covers politics of the Hindi Heartland, tracking BJP, Samajwadi Party, BSP, RLD and other parties based in UP, Bihar and Uttarakhand. Covered the Lok Sabha elections of 2014, 2019 and 2024; Assembly polls of 2012, 2017 and 2022 in UP along with government affairs in UP and Uttarakhand. ... Read More