Manipur is on the boil again, with the Central government seemingly groping in the dark to restore lasting peace in the state. The Congress, immersed in the electoral battle in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, Monday demanded the resignation of Home Minister Amit Shah and convening of an all-party meeting to discuss the situation.

The Congress, as also other Opposition parties, have often attacked the BJP over the crisis in Manipur, particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi for not visiting the state in the one-and-a-half years that the violence has been on, and questioning its “double engine government” poll claims in light of the same.

But their framing of the Manipur crisis as a failure of the Modi-Amit Shah combine allows the government and BJP to project it as a personal fight and take the sting off the Opposition’s argument.

With the Winter Session of Parliament round the corner, Manipur is set to occupy the Opposition again. The BJP is under immense pressure on the issue, with protests spreading in Manipur and its ally National People’s Party (NPP) pulling its support to the N Biren Singh government, accusing it of failure in handling the situation. On Monday, the RSS said the Centre and state have “failed” to ensure safety of the people and to resolve the conflict sincerely.

But how far is the Opposition willing to go? And how will it frame the Manipur crisis this time?

In past Parliament sessions, the Opposition’s insistence on a statement by Modi stalled the House proceedings. This time, the Congress is going into the Session having called for the resignation of Shah, adding it to its old demand to sack Manipur Chief Minister Biren Singh.

However, the Congress may find that other Opposition parties are not on the same page. While they agree that Biren Singh has lost all moral authority to continue as CM, they view demands for Shah’s resignation as maximalist political posturing. Many of them favour creating the atmosphere for a meaningful discussion in Parliament.

To the Congress’s credit, it has kept up the pressure on the Manipur situation despite its limited appeal as an issue across the country.

Another topic that will be high on the Congress’s Winter Session agenda is the Hindenburg-Adani-Buch saga, with the Parliamentary Accounts Committee headed by Congress general secretary (organisation) K C Venugopal pressing for deposition of SEBI chief Madhabi Puri Buch before it on the issue.

However, again, the Congress’s colleagues in the Opposition do not share its enthusiasm on the matter.

The third issue that the Congress could have tried to rally the Opposition together on was the rise in terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir. However, the party is nervous it may be cornered on this, if the BJP raises the fact that the J&K Assembly, where the Congress is part of the ruling coalition, passed a resolution seeking the return of special status to the Union Territory.

The Congress has so far managed to retain the shield of ambiguity on Article 370, though blunt remarks by party chief Mallikarjun Kharge during the Assembly poll campaign have dented this a bit. Kharge argued that the J&K Assembly resolution did not mention the contentious provision, provoking a strong reaction by its ally National Conference.

Ultimately, the big factor in deciding the tone of the Parliament Session will be the outcome of the Assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.

The Lok Sabha results had been a high for Rahul Gandhi, with the jump in Congress numbers after the lows of 2014 and 2019 seen as proof of his emergence finally as a leader in his own right. If Bharat Jodo Yatras erased the image of him as a reluctant, inaccessible politician, the success of the broad campaign themes set by him for the Lok Sabha – whether unemployment, caste census, “proportionate” representation for all caste groups, or “threat” to the Constitution – suggested a consummate leader who had moved beyond theoretical politics.

However, the Congress’s disproportionate euphoria over the Lok Sabha results faced a reality check in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir last month, where the party fared far worse than was predicted. The party went in with essentially the same themes as had worked in the Lok Sabha, including its “guarantees”, and failed in Haryana.

The question now is can the campaign formula that did not work in Haryana have an impact in Maharashtra and Jharkhand? The result will decide the course of the Winter Session of Parliament.