The incumbent Mahayuti registered a comprehensive win in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, securing 235 seats and 49.6% of the vote share, leaving the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) behind at 49 seats and 35.3% of the votes. An analysis of the vote shares and winning margins in each seat shows the extent of the Mahayuti’s dominance – the alliance won 138 of its seats with a vote share above 50% and an average winning margin more than double that of the MVA.

Across the state, candidates secured more than 50% of the vote share in 154 seats, up from 129 such seats in 2019 and just 55 in 2014. This year, the MVA won only 16 such seats, with the majority of its wins settled by much narrower contests.

It was the BJP that led the charge for the Mahayuti – it won 132 of the 149 seats it contested and secured a 26.8% vote share, both setting records for the party in Maharashtra. Almost two-thirds, or 84, of the party’s wins came with vote shares exceeding 50%. The BJP won 26 seats with a vote share above 60%, and secured the highest vote share of this election, at 80.4%, in Satara. The party won all its seats with at least a 30% vote share, its lowest recorded at 30.5% in Rajura.

The BJP’s allies, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-led NCP, notched strong performances too. While of the Sena’s 57 wins, 30 came with a vote share exceeding 50%, the NCP won 20 of its 41 seats with more than half the vote share.

The Mahayuti managed to secure a 50%-plus vote share in 52 Assembly segments it had lost to the MVA in the recent Lok Sabha polls, when it had won just 17 of the state’s 48 parliamentary seats.

Among the MVA victories with at least 50% of the vote share, the Sharad Pawar-led NCP(SP) led with six such seats, the Congress followed with five, and the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) got four. The alliance got more than 60% of the vote share in just three seats, with its highest vote share going to the Congress in Mumbadevi at 63.3%. The MVA won seven seats with vote shares between 30% and 40%, and 27 seats between 40% and 50%.

In as many as 34 seats, the MVA candidates finished third or lower. The alliance also forfeited deposits in 22 seats, with its vote share dropping below 10% in 11 seats.

The winning margins across the state bear out a similar story of the Mahayuti’s dominant performance. Its average winning margin of over 40,100 votes was more than double the MVA’s average margin of 19,200. Overall, the state’s average winning margin was 36,230 votes, considerably up from 28,440 in 2019 and 22,810 in 2014, an indication that the competition was significantly more one-sided this time.

While the BJP outperformed its allies with an average winning margin of just under 42,880 votes, the NCP managed 40,480 and the Shiv Sena almost 33,450. The MVA parties’ average trailed far behind – about 23,820 votes for the NCP(SP), 17,690 for the Congress, and 17,180 for the Sena (UBT).

The winning margin exceeded 1 lakh votes in 16 seats, all won by the Mahayuti, with its highest margin recorded in Shirpur at 1.46 lakh by the BJP. The ruling alliance’s margins dipped below 10,000 in just 44 seats, and below 5,000 in 24 seats. Its lowest winning margin came in Belapur, where the BJP won by just 372 votes.

No candidate of the Opposition alliance won by a margin greater than 1 lakh votes – the NCP(SP) candidate in Mumbra-Kalwa came closest at 96,230. All but five of the MVA’s wins were secured by margins over 50,000 votes. It won 22 seats with a margin less than 10,000 votes, including 10 by less than 5,000 votes. Its lowest winning margin came in Sakoli, where Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole won by just 208 votes, the second lowest margin in this election after the AIMIM’s 162-vote win in Malegaon Central.

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