Defying expectations, Republican candidate Donald Trump on Wednesday defeated his Democratic Presidential rival Kamala Harris paving the way for him to become the 47th President of the United States.

As Trump prepares for his second stint in White House, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor, who also is the chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, speaks to The Indian Express about the road ahead for Indo-US ties, the challenges and the Modi-Trump relationship, among other issues.

Excerpts:

How do you see the US Presidential election results?

I think many of us were expecting a more protracted drama in the last stage of elections as polls were indicating a tight race. But in the end, trends have broken clear much earlier than expected and Trump has officially been declared as the victor.

What does a Trump presidency mean for India?

For India, of course, Trump is a known commodity. We have had four years experience with him as President. So, I don’t expect any major surprises. He is a figure with a mercurial temperament and we have to brace for occasional statements that may be uncomfortable. But, on the other hand, we have a very good chemistry between him and our Prime Minister (Narendra Modi), who was perhaps among the first world leaders to congratulate him even before he was reported to have crossed the 270 mark.

As soon as it was gauged that Trump was likely to win, Modi issued that rather fulsome tweet with a picture of him hugging Trump. That is a reminder that there is a friendship. We do remember him coming here and Modi going there… each saying ab ki baar the other one’s sarkar… That may be of some value in the relationship in the future.

What do you think will be the challenges?

There are a couple of specific issues which we need to think about. Firstly, Trump is basically a very transactional leader. He is definitely going to demand a pound of flesh for every pound he gives us. Similarly when it comes to trade, he has been very tough on India, calling us a “major offender” while referring to tariffs.

Some of the protectionist instincts of the Modi government could run afoul of the American desire for a retaliation in kind. Don’t forget it was the Trump Administration that took India off the GSP preferences list. Tariffs on Indian exports to the US could have a greater impact that we might not particularly welcome. That is something we need to be conscious of.

Immigration is the other aspect. We have a lot of Indian talent working in the US. Since immigration was the major issue in the Trump campaign… Of course he was focusing on illegal immigration, but very often, as we saw even last time, some of the rhetoric spills over into restrictions on legal immigration. There is a general hostility — maybe xenophobia is too strong a word — but there is no great fondness for foreigners coming into the country. There is certainly a possibility that that could mean restrictions for a number of our Indian visa holders, a likelihood of major delays and smaller numbers, as well as hassles in bringing family members over.

There may be some new challenges too, but we will have to see. I am very conscious that today is merely the day of the election results. He is going to become President only on January 20. So there is a long time — two and a half months – for us to expect more detailed signals like who is going to be on the transition team, what kind of policy positions are being advocated and who is going to be in the Cabinet… So there is a lot we still have to wait and watch before we can come to any conclusions.

These are some of the areas where we might need to keep an eye open for the possibility of some change. But by and large, I am not expecting any major surprises, simply because we have dealt with the gentleman for four years and we know from his own statements and pretty much what he stands for.

Do you think the Trump-Modi friendship can be advantageous to India?

It could certainly be.. At least the atmospherics are going to be positive. Trump has come to India and appreciated his visit while Modi has gone to the US. So, there has been a bit of a mutual admiration society during Trump’s first term. Remember, the most important thing is that the basis of the relationship, the fundamentals are extremely sound. For the last 25 years since (former President Bill) Clinton’s visit in 1999 or 2000, we had a situation where both Democrats and Republicans have held office there (in the US) while both the Congress and BJP were in power here. This has been celebrated and cemented the friendship between the two countries.

The relationship is also based on an understanding that there are many areas of common interest and no major areas of clash or disagreement. There is also a common perception of threat — though the threat may be differently perceived in Washington and New Delhi — but a common perception of a threat from China’s assertive rise.

To top that, there is the very influential four million strong Indian diaspora in America. They have held key positions in politics and are a force to be reckoned with.

Indo-US ties have come under a bit of strain recently over the (Gurpatwant Singh) Pannun issue…

It is not an issue that seems to have crossed Trump’s consciousness. He has never made any comment about it. It may not necessarily come into his inbox. However, the intelligence communities of the “Five Eyes” – the US, Canada, the UK, Australia and New Zealand – have shown solidarity with each other and have taken the same line … India should be conscious of that. I don’t see Trump necessarily elevating this to an issue between a President and a Prime Minister. It is likely to be dealt at the senior working level, as has been the case so far.

How is the Congress’ engagement going to be with Trump?

As you may have seen, Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge issued a congratulatory message to President-elect Trump. I would like to argue that the position of both parties (Congress and the BJP) on the Indo-US relationship is broadly similar. We both believe this is a very valuable and important relationship which is worth preserving and strengthening.

We saw this during the Prime Ministership of Manmohan Singh when the Indo-US nuclear deal was concluded and also under Modi. So I don’t really expect that this is going to involve any partisan divide between the parties.

The thrust of the Democratic campaign was that democracy will be in danger if Trump is elected for a second term.. and it did not work…

On the question of why the Democratic messaging did not work, I think in America one of the things that one has to look at is the messenger. It is very tough, as Hillary Clinton discovered, for a woman to be elected in America at the highest levels. It seems to be tougher for a woman of colour to aspire to sit in the White House. I would argue that because everyone is too politically correct to say they would not vote for somebody on either of those grounds — either gender or colour — we will never really know until the votes are actually cast and added up.

There is an ongoing culture war in America and Trump’s side has won it. It may not necessarily be the message, because democracy is something that all American seem to value. But in this case, they certainly valued the message of “Make America Great Again”, hatred for immigrants, especially illegal ones, rejection of “wokeism” and the rest.

If I am right, Trump also has the majority of the popular vote which is surprising because last time when he won the Presidency he had three million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton. So, clearly the public as whole has gone for him and that is something which means that his message, for all its negativity, had a clearly greater appeal than the other side’s messenger.

Do you think the future of the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change which America had rejoined under President (Joe) Biden will come under strain now?

Trump is a climate denialist on record and it is quite clear that he would give zero priority to issues of global warming and environmental protection. The rest of the world will have to do simply the best for themselves because the world is still going to be around when Trump’s term is over. We simply will have to at least have done the right things ourselves in order to ensure that we have a planet we can continue living on.