By reaching an agreement with Maratha quota activist Manoj Jarange-Patil, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde has not only succeeded in ending an agitation with the potential of paralysing Mumbai and causing his government problems but has also raised his stature among the dominant community.

This will be politically significant for the ruling alliance of Shiv Sena led by Shinde, BJP, and the Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) ahead of the Lok Sabha elections and Assembly polls later this year as Marathas constitute 33% of the population. Since Maharashtra’s formation in 1960, 12 of its 20 Chief Ministers, including incumbent Eknath Shinde, have been Marathas. But the division of land holdings and agrarian distress have, over the years, led to a decline in the prosperity of middle and lower-middle-class Marathas, creating the circumstances that have led to the demand for reservation.

Late on Friday, Shinde sent a team of officials with a draft ordinance conceding Jarange-Patil’s demand on issuing Kunbi caste certificates to the “sage-soyare”, a Marathi term that refers to relatives, family, kin, and relations through marriage, lineage, or ancestral. For instance, if there is evidence to show that a person’s grandfather had a Kunbi caste certificate they and their children will be entitled to Kunbi status.

This will presumably make it easier for the government to extend Kunbi certificates to Marathas, thereby bringing them under the Other Backward Class (OBC) ambit. On Saturday morning, Shinde and Jarange-Patil held a joint public rally in Navi Mumbai, with the Maratha quota activist declaring the end of his protest and breaking fast.

But the government has to tread carefully now given that OBC groups are opposed to Marathas getting quota benefits from the reservation pie allotted to them, triggering worry among them. Maharashtra OBC Mahasangh president Babanrao Taywade said following the end of Jarange-Patil’s protest, “We will oppose the draft ordinance. We will not allow Marathas to avail of OBC reservation based on Kunbi certificates. It undermines the OBC quota.”

OBC Jan Morcha president Prakash Shendge also warned of an agitation. “If they include Marathas within OBC quota, we will hold protests in every village across Maharashtra,” he told The Indian Express. “It is a betrayal of OBC trust. The state government repeatedly assured us they would not take any decision that would open doors for Marathas to avail of OBC reservation using Kunbi certificates. Now, draft notification has done exactly the opposite.”

Senior OBC leader and NCP minister Chhagan Bhujbal, one of the ministers who has consistently opposed giving quota to Marathas under the OBC category, said, “The draft ordinance has sought suggestions and objections till February 16. So, it is at the draft level and is not a final notification.” He said OBC organisations would meet in Mumbai on Sunday to chalk out its course of action. The government’s move could be challenged in the High Court or Supreme Court.

The state government is exercising caution and taking it one step at a time. A senior BJP minister who is part of a sub-committee on the Maratha reservation issue said, “Maratha reservation is a complex issue. We are fighting on many fronts.”

Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, in an attempt to reassure OBCs, said, “I would like to reassure Bhujbal and OBC leaders not to worry as the government has not allowed the issuance of Kunbi certificates to non-Kunbi Marathas. It will be given to only those whose Kunbi identity is verified and established.” The Maharashtra State Backward Class Commission has been tasked with providing empirical data and establishing the backwardness of Marathas and at present a caste survey is going on in the state and will continue till January 31.

The government is also awaiting the outcome of the curative petition it has filed in the Supreme Court against its decision to strike down a 2018 law granting Marathas reservation not from the OBC pie. “We had from the beginning stated Maratha reservation will have to be given within the framework of legal and constitutional norms. The reservation to Marathas will have to withstand the legal and constitutional validity,” Fadnavis said on Saturday.

When the Maratha quota protests erupted in 2016-’17, the Maratha Kranti Morcha under the banner of Sakal Maratha Samaj held 58 silent rallies across the state but neither asked for Kunbi certificates nor “sage-soyare”. The original demand of Marathas was separate reservation in government jobs and education and in 2018 the then Devendra Fadnavis government enacted the Maharashtra State Reservation for Socially and Educationally Backward Classes (SEBC) Act, 2018, which granted Marathas 16% reservation in government jobs and education. But the following year the High Court upheld the law but reduced the reservation limit to 12% in education and 13% in government jobs. In 2021, the Supreme Court struck down the law altogether.

Jarange-Patil who started steering the agitation from his village in Jalna district last August-September first raised the demand for Kunbi certificate for Marathas in the Marathwada region, and later for Marathas across the state, so that the community could get reservation from the share of OBCs. In December, he also publicly voiced his new demand for extending the Kumbi certificates to the “sage-soyare”.

During the winter session of the legislature in Nagpur, the CM announced a special session in February 2024 where all issues related to Maratha reservation would be considered and resolved. With the government also seeking suggestions and objections on the draft notification till February 16, legal battles and political wrangling over the issue are almost certain to continue in the coming weeks.