When Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar deserted the BJP in August 2022, he accused the BJP of trying to “split and finish” off his party Janata Dal (United). He changed sides and formed the government with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, and gave the impression that a socialist leader should carry forward his legacy. Three months later, Nitish said Deputy CM Tejashwi Prasad Yadav of RJD would lead the Mahagathbandhan’s Assembly election campaign in 2025.

Cut to January 2024, Nitish and Tejashwi maintained distance at a Republic Day function in Patna as speculation continued to swirl about the CM again deserting his allies and switching sides.

Once the senior NDA partner in Bihar, the JD(U) found itself shrinking and falling behind junior ally BJP. Nitish had been upset with the BJP since his party’s tally in the Assembly plummeted from 71 in 2015 to 43 seats in the 2020 polls while the BJP’s seat count increased from 53 to 74, which was next only to the RJD’s 75.

In private parleys with his party colleagues, Nitish started blaming the BJP for getting Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) leader Chirag Paswan to field candidates in almost all the constituencies where the JD(U) was in the fray. The JD(U) believed that Chirag had acted as the BJP’s proxy to cut his party’s votes and defeat its candidates. Even though the LJP won just one constituency, it made a serious dent in Nitish’s vote base.

Nitish is said to have not felt comfortable about Deputy CMs Renu Devi and Tarkishore Prasad, not enjoying the same level of rapport as he did with Sushil Kumar Modi who had been Deputy CM for 13 years. The two had had a close association since the JP Movement days. JD(U) was also wary of the BJP’s alleged attempts to split it, using then JD(U) leader R C P Singh, who was was a Union Minister at the time.

JD(U) insiders cite several reasons for Nitish’s growing disenchantment with the Congress, RJD, and INDIA bloc. The chief reason is said to be he sensing unease in the current political set-up.

At least seven JD(U) MPs were said to be in touch with the BJP ahead of the LS polls. These MPs won in 2019 because of the social combination of the NDA and were not expecting the same result in alliance with the RJD, Congress, and Left. Also, most of the top senior JD(U) leaders, except former party chief Rajiv Ranjan Singh, were in favour of an alliance with BJP. Nitish likely sensed that the party could split if he did not act. Last month, he replaced Lalan Singh, whose growing proximity to Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi the CM did not like, as the JD(U) national president.

The JD(U) won 16 out of 17 seats it contested as part of the NDA in the 2019 LS polls. With internal surveys not showing encouraging results, Nitish likely worked out that his party would improve its chances of winning under Narendra Modi’s leadership. The JD(U) likely sensed that the Ayodhya Ram Temple inauguration, coupled with Modi’s popularity and his government’s welfare schemes, was part of a winning formula.

Nitish was the leader who worked to get all the parties on board last year to form the INDIA bloc and expected a key post. But that did not come to pass amid unease of parties such as the TMC and AAP. Unlike in 2017, when it blamed the RJD for breaking away from the Mahagathbandhan, the JD(U) this time is pointing the finger at the Congress, blaming it for conceding too much space to other INDIA members.   The JD(U) also saw little reason to stick with the alliance after Rahul Gandhi embarked on the Congress’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra rather than making it about the alliance. With the INDIA bloc failing to come off as a cohesive unit and providing a counter-narrative to BJP and Modi, Nitish again took a pragmatic call with his party’s future in mind.