The 36 Assembly seats that fall within Mumbai City and its suburbs are set to witness a fierce, multi-corner electoral contest as Maharashtra votes on November 20. Among the 420 candidates in the fray, whose fate will be decided by an electorate of around 1 crore, are several top politicians, ministers and scions of political families.

The two parties with the most at stake are the two Shiv Senas, as Mumbai has always been the party’s bastion. It is the first Assembly election that will see the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the Shiv Sena (UBT) take on each other, and which party has the upper hand in Mumbai could decide their futures going forward.

In the Lok Sabha polls, the Sena (UBT) had finished ahead, winning two of the three seats it contested, with the Shinde Sena bagging just one constituency of its share of three, that too by a very thin margin of 47 votes. The two had contested in three seats against each other.

Of the total six Lok Sabha constituencies covering Mumbai and its suburbs, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) had won four.

In the November 20 polls, the Sena (UBT) is contesting 22 of the 36 seats falling in Mumbai and suburbs, comprising the lion’s share in the MVA. Allies Congress and NCP (SP) are contesting 11 and three seats, respectively.

The Shinde Sena is contesting relatively far fewer seats, at 15. It is the BJP that is contesting the most seats in the Mahayuti formulation, at 18. The Ajit Pawar-led NCP is contesting three seats, the same number as the NCP (SP).

In 11 seats, the two Senas will face off against each other, while in nine, the Sena (UBT) will face the BJP, its former ally.

The BJP and Congress are up against each other in seven of the 36 seats.

In the 2019 Assembly polls, the undivided Shiv Sena had contested 19 seats in an alliance with the BJP and won 14. The BJP had won 16. The Congress had contested 29 seats in alliance with the undivided NCP and won four. The NCP had contested six seats and won one.

A Shinde Sena leader said that the recent Lok Sabha story won’t play out in Wednesday’s polling. “The situation has changed. In the Lok Sabha polls, the fake narrative and vote jihad helped the Sena (UBT). But this time people are in our favour owing to the development work and welfare schemes started by CM Shinde,” the Sena leader said, implying that the MVA got the Muslim votes as well as those of the Scheduled Castes by claiming “threat” to the Constitution from the Modi government.

Aside from “development”, the Mahayuti is banking on Hindutva and welfare schemes such as the Ladki Bahin Yojana. The MVA’s main plank in Mumbai is opposition to the Dharavi redevelopment project awarded to the Adani Group, apart from “deteriorating” law and order, corruption, unemployment and the grant of mega industrial investment projects to Gujarat “at the cost of” Maharashtra.

Apart from the six main parties – the two Senas, the two NCPs and the BJP and Congress – there are smaller parties such as the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA), plus Independents and rebels, in the contest, making the fight multi-corner in several seats.

For the Raj Thackeray-led MNS, which has struggled to make any impact, the polls offer another chance for redemption. What it may end up as is a spoiler, taking away enough votes to hurt rival candidates. As an offshoot of the original Sena, the MNS competes for the same vote bank.

Of the 11 seats in which the two Senas are clashing, the most high profile is Worli, from where Uddhav Thackeray’s son Aaditya is seeking re-election. His rival is Milind Deora, the former Congress luminary who is now a Shinde Sena Rajya Sabha MP and contesting his first Assembly election.

In Bandra East, Aaditya’s maternal cousin Varun Sardesai is making his electoral debut and facing NCP candidate and incumbent MLA Zeeshan Siddiqui. The contest is in the limelight following the killing of Zeeshan’s father Baba Siddiqui allegedly by the Lawrence Bishnoi gang. For the Sena (UBT), Bandra East has special significance since the Thackeray residence Matoshree falls in the constituency.

Another interesting fight is in Mahim, from where another Thackeray scion – MNS chief Raj Thackeray’s son Amit – is making his debut. Also in the race are the Shinde Sena’s Sada Sarvankar and Sena (UBT)’s Mahesh Sawant. With the Sena (UBT)’s headquarters located in the constituency, this is another seat the party will want to win.

Similarly, in neighbouring Worli, the two Senas have an additional contestant in the MNS’s Sandeep Deshpande.

Among the prominent faces in the race in the 36 Assembly seats are BJP minister and builder Mangal Prabhat Lodha (Malabar Hill seat), outgoing Speaker and BJP candidate Rahul Narvekar (Colaba), Mumbai Congress president and MP Varsha Gaikwad’s sister Jyoti (Dharavi), Congress-turned-Sena leader Sanjay Nirupam (Dindoshi), the BJP’s Shaina N C contesting on the Sena ticket (Mumbadevi), and NCP MLA Nawab Malik and daughter Sana (Shivaji Nagar-Mankhurd and Anushakti Nagar, respectively).

With the BJP declaring it won’t support Malik, due to his alleged Dawood links, Malik faces an uphill battle. Plus, his opponent is the formidable Samajwadi Party leader Abu Azmi.

Sena (UBT) vs Shinde Sena: 11

Sena (UBT) vs BJP: 9

BJP vs Cong: 8

BJP vs NCP (SP): 2

Shinde Sena vs Congress: 2

NCP (SP) vs Ajit Pawar NCP: 1

Sena (UBT) vs Ajit Pawar NCP: 1

* In Sewree seat, Mahayuti has not fielded a candidate; in Shivaji Nagar-Mankhurd, SP’s Abu Azmi is contesting on behalf of MVA