— Nisar Kannangara and Kalaiarasi Kandhan Sagunthala 

(The Indian Express has launched a new series of articles for UPSC aspirants written by seasoned writers and scholars on issues and concepts spanning History, Polity, International Relations, Art, Culture and Heritage, Environment, Geography, Science and Technology, and so on. Read and reflect with subject experts and boost your chance of cracking the much-coveted UPSC CSE. In the following article, Nisar Kannangara and Kalaiarasi Kandhan Sagunthala analyse the growing threat of climate change and adaptation strategies.)

Earth’s climate has been changing since its formation, but climate change has become a phenomenon of debate in recent decades because the way humans have perceived or calculated its risk no longer holds. Even after years of debate and efforts to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, global temperatures continue to inch towards ‘tipping points’. The change is posing threats not just to the human population, but also to countless species within the biosphere. 

Therefore, the common people, scientists, and policymakers are in continuous search for strategies to adapt to disruptions in ecological, and socio-economic systems caused by climate change. Areas once untouched by floods are now drowning, while regions with historically mild climates are experiencing heat waves. 

Also, when uncertainty becomes the order of the day, it challenges global governance to adopt more integrated approaches, recognising the need for coordination across local, national, and global efforts in both observing and responding to climate change.

Although targets have been set to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address developments like the Industrial Revolution and other human activities that have exacerbated climate change, debates persist over how climate change is defined, measured and addressed.  

According to the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), “Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer.”

This definition is also based on the notion that climate change can result from natural internal processes or external factors, including variations in solar cycles, volcanic eruptions, and ongoing anthropogenic (resulting from or produced by human activities) activities that alter the atmosphere’s composition or land use.

Alternatively, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) distinguishes between climate change caused by human activities that modify atmospheric composition and climate variability that arises from natural factors. 

The UNFCCC, in its Article 1, defines the phenomena as ‘a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.’

Although signs of anthropogenic climate change were noted in the early twentieth century, global concern began to escalate after the first World Climate Conference in 1979. Convened by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and various UN organisations in Geneva, this landmark event laid the foundation for the World Climate Program and prompted further critical discussions, including the Villach Conference in 1985.

The 1988 Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere led to the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the WMO and the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP). The IPCC has since been instrumental in assessing the scientific and socioeconomic impacts of human-induced climate change. 

To date, the IPCC has released six assessment reports. The First Assessment Report (1990) highlighted the significant impacts of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, contributing to the formation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro.

Subsequent reports have shaped international climate policy: the Second Assessment Report (1995) laid the groundwork for the Kyoto Protocol, the Third Report (2001) focused on vulnerabilities to climate change, the Fourth Report (2007) emphasised global warming impacts, and the Fifth Assessment Report (2014) supported the adoption of the Paris Agreement (2015), and the Sixth Assessment Report (2021) called for urgent action to limit warming to 1.5°C, stressing the need for both mitigation and adaptation strategies to address the worsening climate crisis.

Climate change manifests in different ways across the planet. More frequent and intense droughts, storms, heatwaves, rising sea levels, melting glaciers, and warming oceans can directly or indirectly affect the habitats, ecosystems and environments and devastate lives and livelihoods. 

The variability in climate is classified into two broad categories: long-term changes and extreme events. The shifts in the average weather patterns over a long period are called the long-term impact of climate change. It may include the changes in the temperature, both increase and decrease, sea-level rise, changes in the pattern of precipitation, and ocean acidification. The consequences of the long-term events on the terrain and the ecosystem are gradual and its negative impacts are less visible. On the other hand, the effects of extreme weather events, such as cyclones and floods, can be more destructive.

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), in its annual report (2022) observes that in the year 2022, temperatures experienced in the country were consistently 3 °C to 8 °C above normal, breaking numerous decadal and some all-time records across various regions, including the western Himalayas, and the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. 

In addition, extreme weather events like extremely heavy rainfall, floods, landslides, lightning, thunderstorms, droughts etc., were also experienced in different parts of the country.

During the year 2022, 15 cyclonic disturbances formed over the north Indian Ocean, including three cyclones, seven depressions formed over Bay of Bengal, and three depressions over Arabian Sea and two land depressions.

The impacts of climate change sometimes devastate communities, leading to loss of life and property. The World Economic Forum has also warned that India’s economy, which is significantly reliant on natural resources, is highly susceptible to climate risks. Approximately one-third of India’s GDP is derived from sectors that depend heavily on the environment. The climate crisis could result in the loss of the nation’s income by 6.4 per cent to over 10 per cent by 2100, potentially pushing an additional 50 million people into poverty.

The authors have conducted a study across three distinct terrains – coastal, plains, and hills – in a district exposed to long-term changes and extreme climatic events. The study revealed how people and communities dependent on fishing, agriculture, and plantations cope with climate-related challenges.

In coastal areas, rising sea levels and increasing sea temperatures has multiple impacts on the lives of fishermen. Sea level rise has altered coastlines, particularly in villages along the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, while the rise in sea temperatures has caused the migration of fish species. These long-term changes have resulted in the loss of natural harbours, the decline in fish catches, and reduced working days for fishermen. 

In the plains, where agriculture forms the backbone of the economy, farmers face frequent crop damage due to the changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. On the hills where planters dependent on crops like tea, coffee, rubber, and coconut are facing increasing challenges of pest attacks, and plant diseases, due to changes in rainfall and precipitation. 

Most people affected by these changes respond spontaneously and intuitively. For instance, farmers experiencing crop damage due to early rainfall shift to seeds that have short cropping duration, while fishermen adjust their gear to target different species when their usual catch is unavailable. 

However, these proactive autonomous adaptation measures are not viable for everyone. Many people are incapable of enduring climate change distress and migrate to urban areas. A report by the Yale Programme on Climate Change reveals that 14 per cent of Indians have already migrated due to weather-related disasters.

Until the early 2000s, climate scientists and policymakers primarily focused on mitigation efforts. However, the increasing frequency of climate crises worldwide has made adaptation an urgent priority, resulting in a growing consensus among scientists and policymakers that adaptation is essential. The IPCC reports have increasingly emphasised adaptation strategies as critical responses to the climate crisis.

Adaptation strategies require financial resources, knowledge, institutional support, and active community involvement. The concept of “governance of adaptation” has emerged as a crucial theme in contemporary climate discourse. For a country like India, a robust democratic response to the escalating climate crisis is vital. Incorporating adaptive governance into the decision-making process is one of the effective ways to address these challenges. 

This process involves advanced research to capture on-the-ground realities, understanding how communities are experiencing and responding to climate impacts, fostering grassroots policy ideas, engaging scientists, allocating adequate budgets, building institutions, and ensuring proper implementation and evaluation. As we face the realities of climate change, proactive and comprehensive adaptation strategies will be essential for building resilience and safeguarding our future.

What is climate change? How is it defined, measured and addressed?

How has climate change risk perception shifted in recent decades, and what are the potential impacts of rising global temperatures on both humans and other species in the biosphere?

What are the key elements of proactive and comprehensive adaptation strategies needed to build resilience and safeguard our future in the face of climate change?

How can financial resources, knowledge, institutional support, and community involvement be integrated into adaptation strategies to address India’s climate crisis?

(Dr Nisar Kannangara is a research consultant at the Indian Institute for Human Settlements Bengaluru. Kalaiarasi Kandhan Sagunthala is a senior project associate at the M.S. Swaminathan Research Foundation, Chennai.)

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