On Tuesday, the Uttarakhand government tabled the Uniform Civil Code (UCC) Bill in the state Assembly during a special four-day session, nearly two years after a committee was formed to draft the Bill. With the Bill set to be passed by the state Assembly, Uttarakhand will become the first state since Independence to institute a UCC (Goa has had one since it was a Portuguese territory).

The UCC, which seeks to bring uniformity in laws governing marriage, divorce, and inheritance, among other things, across religions, however, has faced criticism from Opposition parties and the Muslim community.

The committee that drafted the Bill claims to have held 72 meetings, interacted with around 10,000 people and received 2.3 lakh suggestions from the public, including meetings in areas with large Muslim populations such as Kaliyar Sharif, Manglaur, Ramnagar, Haldwani, Kashipur and Vikas Nagar.

Though Hindus make up an overwhelming majority of Uttarakhand’s population at 82.97% of the population, Muslims account for a substantial 13.95% as well, as per the 2011 Census. The districts with the highest proportion of Muslims are Haridwar (34.28%), Udham Singh Nagar (22.58%), Nainital (12.65%) and Dehradun (11.91%).

In the state’s remaining nine districts, the Muslim population ranges from 0.55% to 3.35%.

The four districts with the largest Muslim populations together have 36 Assembly seats, and are primarily represented in the Lok Sabha seats of Hardwar, Nainital-Udham Singh Nagar and Tehri Garhwal. The BJP has won all the five Lok Sabha in Uttarakhand in the last two elections. However, in terms of vote share, the Congress is not too far behind in the state’s bipolar politics.

In the 2022 Assembly elections, which the BJP won to return to power, its sitting CM Pushkar Singh Dhami had promised a UCC on the last day of campaigning. Incidentally, Dhami himself lost, though his success in piloting the UCC Bill now firmly entrenches its position. A UCC is one of the oldest agendas of the Sangh – long before Ram Temple – and has featured in the BJP election manifesto since 1989.

So, with the Lok Sabha elections months away, could the UCC change the poll equations? A look at the numbers:

Since Uttarakhand was carved out of Uttar Pradesh in 2002, the state has seen four Lok Sabha elections, of which only the first one saw the 5 seats divided among parties (3 to the BJP, and 1 each to the Congress and Samajwadi Party). In 2009, the Congress swept all the five seats, while in 2014 and 2019 (the two Modi wave elections), it was the BJP that bagged all.

In terms of vote share too, the BJP has consistently been on the rise since 2009. While the Congress’s share has declined, in the largely bipolar contest, it still gets 30-plus percentage votes. Similarly, though parties like the BSP, Aam Aadmi Party and SP have had limited success, the BSP has held on to a base vote of around 5%.

The BJP has also done well in the recent past in the three seats that have sizeable Muslim populations – Hardwar, Nainital-Udham Singh Nagar and Tehri Garhwal. Its candidates secured more than 60% of the vote share in two seats and more than 50% in the other seat in the 2019 polls. In the 2014 polls, the BJP won more than 50% of the vote share in each of these seats.

In 2009, when it won all the 5 seats, the Congress won these 3 with just over 40% of the votes.

In 2004, the SP had won Hardwar with 32.3% of the votes, with the BSP and BJP close behind. The Congress had won Nainital comfortably, but had lost out to the BJP in Tehri Garhwal by just over 17,000 votes.

The BJP has dominated the state polls in Uttarakhand, forming the government after three of the five elections held since the state was created. The polls have primarily been bipolar contests, with the BSP a third contender.

The last two Assembly polls, in 2017 and 2022, saw the BJP win comfortably, with more than 40% of the votes and a clear lead ahead of the majority mark of 36 in the 70-member House.

However, the state’s first three elections were more competitive, with the BJP and Congress ending in a near tie in 2012.

While the BJP won 47 seats and 44.33% of the votes in 2022, it recorded the state’s highest seat tally and vote share in 2017, at 56 and 46.51%, respectively.

In 2012 and 2007, no party won an outright majority, with a narrow vote share margin separating the BJP and the Congress. In 2012, the Congress, with 32 seats, won just one more seat than the BJP and secured a vote share of 33.79%, which was just 0.66%-points higher than the BJP’s. That year the Congress ended up forming the government with a post-poll alliance with the BSP, Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (UKD) and Independents.

In 2007, the BJP fell short of the majority mark by just one seat. The Congress was far behind the BJP in terms of sets with 21, but its 29.59% vote share was just 2.31%-points behind the BJP’s 31.9%. The BJP went on to form the government with the UKD and Independents.

The 2002 poll, the state’s first, was the Congress’s only win with an outright majority. The party won 36 seats and 26.91% of the vote. While the BJP won 19 seats, its vote share at 25.45% was just 1.46%-points behind the Congress.

In the 36 Assembly seats that fall in the districts with sizeable Muslim populations, the BJP won 21 seats, Congress 12, BSP 2 and Independents 1 in the 2022 Assembly polls. In 2017, the BJP had won 29 of these seats, with the Congress winning just 6. In 2012, it was a narrower contest – the BJP had won 19 seats and the Congress 14 with the BSP taking 3.