During a bumpy four-hour drive from Bhagwangad in Beed to Pune, after covering a BJP rally in 2014, 46-year-old TV journalist Imtiaz Jaleel found himself at a crossroads. This moment of reflection ultimately led him to make a career-defining decision. His gamble of joining politics paid off when he secured an unexpected victory in the Aurangabad Central Assembly seat, helping the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) set out on a path to build a significant space for itself in Maharashtra politics.

A decade later, despite the media attention and political visibility that the AIMIM has garnered, the party, along with Jaleel, find themselves on slippery ground in Maharashtra. Once seen as a potent vehicle for political polarisation, the AIMIM is grappling with internal dissent and growing disillusionment among its core Muslim electorate. Increasingly, many Muslims are questioning the party’s ability to effectively challenge the BJP’s dominance and are shifting their support to other political forces they view as more strategically viable.

Notably, a list issued by prominent cleric Sajjad Nomani of candidates whom the Muslim community should vote for had no place for Jaleel.

The struggles of the AIMIM are perhaps best embodied by Jaleel, its state president. He is now embroiled in one of his toughest political battles yet, having shifted to Aurangabad East where he faces a formidable challenge from the BJP’s Atul Save. To add to his woes, Jaleel is up against former ally Gaffar Quadri, the ex-working president of the AIMIM who recently left the party and is now running as a candidate for the Samajwadi Party (SP).

At 56, Jaleel, an MBA graduate and former journalist, has experienced a meteoric rise in state politics. After his win in 2014, he made history in 2019 by becoming the first Muslim MP from Aurangabad in over four decades. As the AIMIM state president, Jaleel has earned the trust and ear of party chief Asaduddin Owaisi.

But he lost the Lok Sabha elections this year and attempting a comeback in the Assembly polls. His strategic move to shift to Aurangabad East, where Muslims constitute 37% of the electorate, may seem like a calculated decision but has sparked discontent within the party’s ranks. Quadri, a two-time candidate from Aurangabad East in 2014 and 2019, is now in open rebellion, accusing Jaleel and Owaisi of sidelining him. Quadri has alleged that Jaleel is acting as a “slave” to BJP leader and Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and helping the BJP divide the Muslim vote.

Unlike the AIMIM, which is often associated with a Muslim-first agenda, Jaleel has managed to build a broader coalition beyond the minority community based on his personal charisma and political goodwill. However, the political landscape in Aurangabad East has shifted dramatically. The BJP is throwing its full weight behind Save, a close associate of Fadnavis while Jaleel faces dissent.

Jaleel himself has dismissed any rumours of a BJP “alliance”, saying, “To defeat me, a large number of Muslim candidates have been put up. Everyone knows who is funding them, who wants our votes divided, and who is behind this conspiracy. The BJP has funded these men only to ensure that the Muslim vote gets divided.” He remains optimistic that the Muslim-Maratha consolidation could carry him through.

Local activists, however, are more sceptical. “He is venerated by many in Aurangabad and he has reached out to (quota activist) Manoj Jarange-Patil in the hope of securing Maratha support. But with the BJP’s massive polarisation campaign and the dissent from his former associate, this election is going to be a tough mountain for Jaleel to climb,” said Sadiq Biyabani, a local.

The AIMIM made a dramatic entry into Maharashtra politics in 2014 by securing Byculla and Aurangabad Central. However, maintaining its foothold has proven difficult. In the 2019 elections, the party lost both seats by significant margins, though it did manage to win Malegaon Central, largely due to the influence of high-profile defectors, including Mufti Ismail, and an unexpected victory by Faruk Shah in Dhule.

But the party’s fortunes have since waned. Ismail’s hospitalisation after a heart attack earlier this week, coupled with Shah facing strong competition for the Muslim vote from the SP, has made retaining these seats increasingly challenging. Additionally, the presence of formidable candidates from both the BJP and Shiv Sena (UBT) has further complicated the situation.

Although the AIMIM has fielded 16 candidates across the state, the party’s internal turmoil and weakened organisational structure have left it struggling to maintain its momentum. Frequent flip-flops on candidate selection have also raised questions about internal cohesion. Former Mumbai unit president Faiyyaz Ahmed resigned after being denied a ticket, only to be reinstated as a candidate under pressure from Telangana MLA and Owaisi’s brother Akbaruddin.

There is also growing disillusionment within the minority community about the AIMIM’s political strategy, with some perceiving its actions as inadvertently aiding the BJP. This sentiment was reflected in Nomani’s list that named only Ismail in Malegaon and Farooq Shabdi in Solapur City Central as worthy of support. There is concern that the AIMIM’s provocative rhetoric deepens communal divides, making it difficult for it to attract enough Hindu voters to win elections. In such a scenario, voting for the AIMIM is seen as a wasted vote.