Barely five months ago in the Lok Sabha polls, a united Opposition under the INDIA bloc banner, managed to punch holes in the BJP’s tally, reducing it from 303 to 240, denting its morale and air of preeminence in the process.

However, since the Lok Sabha results, leaders of the INDIA bloc have not been seen together — even for perfunctory photo ops — despite the alliance existing on paper and its leaders speaking in the same vein against the BJP.

Despite the BJP-led NDA forming the government at the Centre, the Opposition confidence was sky-high till the “unexpected” Haryana results took the wind out of the sails of the Congress, the INDIA bloc’s de facto leader. The BJP win in Haryana also put the idea of Opposition unity in tatters as the “irresponsible” Congress came under attack from allies for its poor show.

With its momentum losing steam, Saturday will be key for the Congress as well as many parties of the INDIA bloc. The battlegrounds this time are Maharashtra, a state where the BJP suffered its heaviest losses in the Lok Sabha polls, and Jharkhand.

Under the banner of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in Maharashtra, the three-party grouping — the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (SP) — won 30 (and a rebel who later supported the alliance) of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, leaving the BJP reeling while in Jharkhand, the Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) combine managed to win five of the seat 14 seats, all ST-reserved.

Pawar, Thackeray political future on the line

The Congress is desperately seeking a victory under its belt after its Haryana drubbing to reframe its narrative that the BJP is on the decline and will want to better its Lok Sabha performance in the state which is crucial politically in terms of resources and heft.

On the other hand, for NCP (SP) chief Sharad Pawar and Sena (UBT) president Uddhav Thackeray, whose parties saw splits in 2023 and 2022, respectively, the outcome is likely to make or break their immediate political future.

A victory in Maharashtra will also give bragging rights to the Opposition as it will pocket a large state like Maharashtra. Also, there are scores to settle. After all, it was in Maharashtra where the BJP dealt the biggest blow to the Opposition by engineering splits in two parties and bringing down the Uddhav Thackeray-led MVA government.

While losing Maharashtra could damage the cohesion of the INDIA bloc, a victory could re-energise the Opposition camp with many of its leaders believing that it could slow down the BJP’s “predatory politics”.

The Opposition believes its “save the Constitution” narrative yielded maximum results in Maharashtra and hence would see Saturday’s results as a referendum to the narrative, especially after the Congress and Rahul Gandhi once again made it a focal point of the MVA campaign along with an aggressive backward caste pitch.

As the fates of Pawar and Thackeray hang in the balance, the Congress’s performance will also chart the course for its campaigns centred around the Constitution, caste census, and increased reservations for Dalits, STs and OBCs. A poor showing could also dampen the spirits of the party, which is raring to take on the BJP in Parliament over the indictment of industrialist Gautam Adani in the US in the upcoming Winter Session.

In a sign that it is leaving nothing to chance in case of hung verdicts and sending out a proactive message, the Congress on Friday appointed three observers each for the result-bound states. Two former CMs — Ashok Gehlot (Rajasthan) and Bhupesh Baghel (Chhattisgarh) — along with Karnataka Home Minister G Parameshwara will oversee post-results affairs in Maharashtra. For Jharkhand, it has appointed Katihar MP Tariq Anwar, Telangana Deputy CM Bhatti Vikramarka Mallu and AICC joint Secretary Krishna Allavaru as observers.

With the BJP aggressively playing the Hindutva card in Maharashtra with slogans like “batenge toh katenge (divided, we fall)” and “ek hain toh safe hain (united, we are safe)”, and raking up the issue of alleged infiltration in Jharkhand, victories in both states will come as a sigh of relief for the Opposition, which has so far struggled to counter its rival’s Hindutva politics.

On the other hand, the Opposition could project a victory in Jharkhand as “people’s reply to the BJP’s vendetta politics” while hoping that it would slow down the strong arm of investigation agencies.

With the BJP playing the polarising infiltration card and projecting former CM Champai Soren — who switched from the JMM to the BJP — as one of its key faces, the Opposition will keenly watch these seats, especially in the Kolhan region of the state where the BJP fared poorly in the 2019 polls. The Congress, with its Dalit-tribal narrative, is hoping that it can prevent the shift of votes from these communities.