By-elections to Lok Sabha or Assembly constituencies are generally a tame affair, unless they have significance in the larger scheme of national politics or for the survival of a state government. The candidature of a high-profile politician too can arouse considerable interest. Indira Gandhi’s spirited 1978 Chikkamagaluru contest or Sharad Yadav’s much fabled victory in Jabalpur in 1974, for instance, were crucial markers in India’s long political history.

The by-elections to nine Assembly segments in Uttar Pradesh, initially scheduled for November 13 but delayed owing to festivals to November 20, do not fall in any of these categories. However, the contest is turning out to be crucial and politically interesting for a variety of reasons, with much at stake for both the BJP and Opposition.

They are also being seen as an indicator of the public mood in the electorally crucial UP, months after it threw up a surprise verdict in the Lok Sabha elections.

The seats are spread across the state – three in Eastern UP, four in the Western part and one each in the Central and Braj regions – and are distinct demographically too. There is a Scheduled Caste-reserved seat and a couple of constituencies where the Muslim vote could be crucial.

Besides the context and timing, the by-elections could also be a signifier regarding the evolving dynamics within the BJP.

The ruling party – despite its twin mascots of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath – suffered a rude shock in Lok Sabha elections four months ago when its tally plunged from 62 to 33, triggering a massive churn and unrest in the organisation. The Samajwadi Party (SP) surprised itself, its rivals and the larger Opposition by winning 37 out of the 80 seats. Riding pillion, the Congress won six seats.

The BJP is desperate to regain lost ground to send a signal that the Lok Sabha setback in the Hindi belt was perhaps an aberration. Not just in UP, the party had lost ground in Haryana and Rajasthan as well. The fact that the BJP made a comeback in the Assembly elections has perhaps added more pressure on Adityanath in UP. The Lok Sabha results had led to unusual and rather curious jostling in the UP BJP (triggered by Deputy CM Keshav Prasad Maurya’s meetings with leaders in Delhi).

The outcome, if it is bad for the BJP, has the potential to accentuate the rift in the party. And Delhi, or rather some in Delhi, are keenly watching.

The SP, on the other hand, has to prove that its performance in the Lok Sabha elections was not a flash in the pan and that the state is undergoing a gradual political shift ahead of the Assembly elections in 2027. It has sidelined ally Congress, taking it upon itself to fight all the nine by-elections.

But the campaign so far has not shown any signs of shifting strategies.

Adityanath has coined the controversial ‘batenge toh katenge (divided we will fall)’ slogan, which has got the endorsement of the RSS and Modi. Apart from the dog-whistle nature of the slogan, many link it with the caste census conundrum that the BJP is facing. With the Opposition mounting intense pressure on the Central government to carry out a caste census, which could open a Pandora’s box, the message to the party’s Hindu vote bank and to the larger community seems to be simple and clear.

The division in the Hindu vote in UP had alarmed both the BJP and the RSS, hence the attempt to sharpen its Hindutva narrative to unite all castes. Adityanath has already toured all the nine constituencies once and is planning yet another campaign tour.

The SP has come up with a counter, ‘judenge toh jeetenge (united we will win)’, and stuck to its amorphous PDA – pichde (backward), Dalit and alpsankhyak (minorities) – strategy. In line with that, the party has given tickets to four Muslims, three from backward classes and two Dalits.

Besides the BJP and SP, the elections are important for Mayawati’s BSP, which is contesting bypolls in a break from the past. Mayawati has coined her own slogan: “BSP se judenge toh aage badhenge, surakshit rahenge (Supporting BSP will guarantee development, and security)”.

The Congress, unhappy over the SP’s stern snub, has promised to support its candidates and work for Opposition unity. But there will be some happy faces in the Congress if the SP fails to score a big victory.

Ironically, the situation is the same in the BJP too.