In a by-election poised to influence Uttarakhand’s political landscape for years to come, BJP candidate Asha Nautiyal triumphed in the Kedarnath Assembly seat, securing 23,814 votes and defeating Congress’s Manoj Rawat by a margin of 5,622 votes. The victory reinforces the BJP’s hold in the state, particularly in a politically and culturally significant constituency.

Independent candidate Tribhuvan Singh, who briefly emerged as a contender during the initial rounds of counting, garnered 9,311 votes, finishing a distant third. The outcome not only solidifies the BJP’s dominance but also underscores its ability to retain voter confidence in Kedarnath, a seat rendered vacant by the passing of BJP MLA Shaila Rani Rawat.

The result is a much-needed boost for the party, which has been grappling with challenges in recent months despite its dominance in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress’s recent victories in the Manglaur and Badrinath by-polls had shifted political momentum in the state, raising questions about the BJP’s invincibility. The loss in Uttar Pradesh’s Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat had further fueled speculation about the BJP’s hold over its core electorate. Against this backdrop, retaining the Kedarnath seat was crucial for the party to reaffirm its strength in Uttarakhand’s hill regions.

Kedarnath, home to the revered Kedarnath temple, is not just a constituency but a symbol of Uttarakhand’s cultural and religious identity. At a time when many political pundits speculated that the local voters are unhappy with the ruling BJP due to its alleged mismanagement of the Chardham yatra, BJP’s win here underscores its ability to retain voter trust in a region steeped in spirituality and marked by a strong connection to the Chardham pilgrimage circuit.

For Congress, the defeat represents a setback in its efforts to consolidate gains made in recent by-elections and position itself as a credible challenger to the BJP.

The political history of the Kedarnath seat has been as dynamic as the state’s terrain. Nautiyal’s victory marks a return to prominence for a leader who has long been associated with the BJP’s fortunes in the region. Nautiyal had previously won the seat in 2002 and 2007, establishing herself as a key figure in the party’s hill strategy. However, the political landscape shifted dramatically in 2012, when Shaila Rani Rawat, then with Congress, defeated Nautiyal by over 2,000 votes.

The seat took another turn in 2016 when Shaila Rani Rawat, along with eight other Congress MLAs, defected to the BJP, contributing to the collapse of then chief minister Harish Rawat’s government and leading to the imposition of President’s Rule in the state. By the 2017 elections, the BJP fielded Shaila Rani Rawat, sidelining Nautiyal, who contested as an Independent. This internal division cost the BJP dearly, as Congress’s Manoj Rawat claimed victory in a closely fought contest, while independent candidates, including Nautiyal, pushed Shaila Rani Rawat to fourth place.

Shaila Rani Rawat made a comeback in the 2022 elections, reclaiming the seat for the BJP by defeating Independent candidate Kuldeep Singh Rawat with a margin of over 8,000 votes. Manoj Rawat, representing Congress, finished third, underlining the fragmented nature of Kedarnath’s political dynamics, where independents have consistently played a disruptive role.

This year’s by-election, triggered by Shaila Rani Rawat’s death, brought the focus back to Nautiyal, whose grassroots appeal and experience resonated with voters. Her victory also reflects the BJP’s ability to manage internal rifts and consolidate support in a constituency that has often witnessed intense rivalries and shifting allegiances.

The result has significant implications for both parties. For the BJP, it is a reaffirmation of its dominance in a key constituency at a time when questions were being raised about its ability to sustain its winning streak in Uttarakhand. For Congress, the loss in Kedarnath, despite its recent gains, underscores the challenges it faces in countering the BJP’s narrative and overcoming the influence of independent candidates, who continue to fragment the opposition vote.